Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33580453›Full record

SynthesisHepatology international2021

The epidemiology of NAFLD and lean NAFLD in Japan: a meta-analysis with individual and forecasting analysis, 1995-2040.

Takanori Ito, Masatoshi Ishigami, Biyao Zou, Taku Tanaka, Hirokazu Takahashi, Masayuki Kurosaki, Mayumi Maeda, Khin Naing Thin, Kenichi Tanaka, Yuka Takahashi and 16 more

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Hepatology international, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 84 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
84citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

84 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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24 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

26 authors.

Takanori ItoDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan.
Masatoshi IshigamiDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan.
Biyao ZouDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, 780 Welch Road, CJ250K, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, USA.
Taku TanakaDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan.
Hirokazu TakahashiLiver Center, Saga University Hospital, Saga, Japan.
Masayuki KurosakiDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
Mayumi MaedaDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, 780 Welch Road, CJ250K, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, USA.
Khin Naing ThinDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, 780 Welch Road, CJ250K, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, USA.
Kenichi TanakaDivision of Metabolism and Endocrinology, Faculty of Medicine, Saga University, Saga, Japan.
Yuka TakahashiDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
Yoshito ItohDepartment of Molecular Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan.
Kentaro OnikiDivision of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Japan.
Yuya SekoDepartment of Molecular Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan.
Junji SaruwatariDivision of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Japan.
Miwa KawanakaDepartment of General Internal Medicine 2, Kawasaki Medical School General Medical Center, Okayama, Japan.
Masanori AtsukawaDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nippon Medical School, Tokyo, Japan.
Hideyuki HyogoDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, JA Hiroshima General Hospital, Hiroshima, Japan.
Masafumi OnoDepartment of Internal Medicine, Tokyo Women's Medical University Medical Center East, Tokyo, Japan.
Eiichi OgawaDepartment of General Internal Medicine, Kyushu University Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan.
Scott D BarnettDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, 780 Welch Road, CJ250K, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, USA.
Christopher D StaveLane Medical Library, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Ramsey C CheungDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, 780 Welch Road, CJ250K, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, USA.
Mitsuhiro FujishiroDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan.
Yuichiro EguchiLiver Center, Saga University Hospital, Saga, Japan.
Hidenori ToyodaDepartment of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Ogaki, Japan.
Mindie H NguyenDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, 780 Welch Road, CJ250K, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, USA. mindiehn@stanford.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6275-4989

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundNAFLD is increasing in Asia including Japan, despite its lower obesity rate than the West. However, NAFLD can occur in lean people, but data are limited. We aimed to investigate the epidemiology of NAFLD in Japan with a focus on lean NAFLD.

methodsWe searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Japan Medical Abstracts Society (inception to 5/15/2019) and included 73 eligible full-text original research studies (n = 258,531). We used random-effects model for pooled estimates, Bayesian modeling for trend and forecasting, contacted authors for individual patient data and analyzed 14,887 (7752 NAFLD; 7135 non-NAFLD-8 studies) patients.

resultsThe overall NAFLD prevalence was 25.5%, higher in males (p < 0.001), varied by regions (p < 0.001), and increased over time (p = 0.015), but not by per-person income or gross prefectural productivity, which increased by 0.64% per year (1983-2012) and is forecasted to reach 39.3% in 2030 and 44.8% in 2040. The incidence of NAFLD, HCC, and overall mortality were 23.5, 7.6 and 5.9 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Individual patient-level data showed a lean NAFLD prevalence of 20.7% among the NAFLD population, with lean NAFLD persons being older and with a higher all-cause mortality rate (8.3 vs. 5.6 per 1000 person-years for non-lean NAFLD, p = 0.02). Older age, male sex, diabetes, and FIB-4 were independent predictors of mortality, but not lean NAFLD.

conclusionNAFLD prevalence has increased in Japan and may affect half of the population by 2040. Lean NAFLD individuals makeup 20% of the NAFLD population, were older, and had higher mortality.

Indexed as

Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver DiseaseAgedBayes TheoremCarcinoma, HepatocellularFemaleHumansJapanLiver NeoplasmsMalePrevalenceBody Mass IndexFatty liverFIB-4 IndexFibrosisHepatocellular carcinomaJapaneseMetabolic syndromeNonalcoholic steatohepatitisPrognosisSystematic review

Identifiers

PMID33580453

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.