ArticlePLoS computational biology2021
Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 132 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
132 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Monitoring School Absenteeism for Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Pooled it
- Integrating mathematical modelling and artificial intelligence to combat emerging viral syndemics: A systematic review.New microbes and new infections · 2026Review
- Retrospective evaluation of trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts for influenza hospital admissions - United States, 2022-2025.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Generative diffusion models for spatiotemporal influenza forecasting.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Evaluation of short-term multi-target respiratory forecasts over winter 2024-25 in England using sub-ensemble contribution analyses.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Leveraging synthetic and genetic data to improve epidemic forecasting.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Evaluation of respiratory disease hospitalisation forecasts using synthetic outbreak data.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Learning shared forecast-error structure to improve ensemble forecasts of seasonal respiratory outbreaks.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Assessing human judgment forecasts in the rapid spread of the mpox outbreak: insights and challenges for pandemic preparedness.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Local Influenza Forecasts Outperform State-Level Forecasts in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- A comparative study of simulation-based inference methods for epidemic models with identifiability considerations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Spatio-temporal epidemic forecasting with graph-based transformer.International journal of health geographics · 2026Article
- Networked SIRS model with Kalman filter state estimation for epidemic monitoring in Europe.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Joint Bayesian Nowcasting of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and COVID-19 Positives in Brazil.Statistics in medicine · 2026Article
- Forecastability of infectious disease time series: are some seasons and pathogens intrinsically more difficult to forecast?PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Toward AI foundation models for epidemics: Promise, challenges, and paths forward.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Basic Baseline model design choices can substantially influence performance in collaborative forecast hubs.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Dengue forecasting and outbreak detection in Brazil using LSTM: integrating human mobility and climate factors.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Leveraging probabilistic forecasts for dengue preparedness and control: The 2024 Dengue Forecasting Sprint in Brazil.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Article
72 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
For practical reasons, many forecasts of case, hospitalization, and death counts in the context of the current Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are issued in the form of central predictive intervals at various levels. This is also the case for the forecasts collected in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/). Forecast evaluation metrics like the logarithmic score, which has been applied in several infectious disease forecasting challenges, are then not available as they require full predictive distributions. This article provides an overview of how established methods for the evaluation of quantile and interval forecasts can be applied to epidemic forecasts in this format. Specifically, we discuss the computation and interpretation of the weighted interval score, which is a proper score that approximates the continuous ranked probability score. It can be interpreted as a generalization of the absolute error to probabilistic forecasts and allows for a decomposition into a measure of sharpness and penalties for over- and underprediction.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.