ArticleBone & joint open2021
Elective orthopaedic cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: where are we now, and where are we heading?
Article in Bone & joint open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
37 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- The outcomes of total hip arthroplasty in rapidly progressive osteoarthritis: a systematic review.European journal of orthopaedic surgery & traumatology : orthopedie traumatologie · 2023Pooled it
- Comparison of orthopaedic specialty registrar training opportunities in trusts with and without an elective surgical hub: a review of administrative data.Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England · 2026Article
- Why do orthopaedic surgeons get sued? An analysis of £2.2 billion in claims against NHS England: trends in litigation and strategies to enhance care.Archives of orthopaedic and trauma surgery · 2025Article
- An overnight sensation: the effect of an acute introduction of a short-stay pathway on a previously compromised arthroplasty service.Bone & joint open · 2025Article
- The cost of keeping patients waiting: retrospective treatment-control study of additional healthcare utilisation for UK patients awaiting elective treatment.BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Article
- Article
- Community-based care for people with chronic knee and hip pain: Preliminary clinical outcomes and healthcare utilisation for ESCAPE-pain.Musculoskeletal care · 2023Article
- Factors associated with a clinically significant improvement in health-related quality of life after total knee arthroplasty.European journal of orthopaedic surgery & traumatology : orthopedie traumatologie · 2023Article
- Changes in Shoulder Trauma during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A South Korean Survey.Clinics in orthopedic surgery · 2023Article
- Preoperative health-related quality of life is independently associated with postoperative mortality risk following total hip or knee arthroplasty : seven to eight years' follow-up.Bone & joint open · 2022Article
- Prioritisation of patients awaiting hip and knee arthroplasty: Lower pre-operative EQ-5D is associated with greater improvement in quality of life and joint function.Musculoskeletal care · 2022Article
- No time to waste; the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hip, knee, and shoulder arthroplasty surgeries in the Netherlands and Denmark.Bone & joint open · 2022Article
- Article
- Supporting COVID-19 elective recovery through scalable wait list modelling: Specialty-level application to all hospitals in England.Health care management science · 2022Article
- Prioritization of THose aWaiting hip and knee ArthroplastY(PATHWAY): protocol for development of a stakeholder led clinical prioritization tool.Bone & joint open · 2022Article
- The impact of deprivation on patients awaiting planned care.Bone & joint open · 2022Article
- A predictive model for the post-pandemic delay in elective treatment.Operations research for health care · 2022Article
- The Impact of COVID-19 on the Orthopaedic Patient in Slovenia: Hip and Knee Replacement Surgery, 90-Day Mortality, Outpatient Visits and Waiting Times.Zdravstveno varstvo · 2022Article
- Meaningful values of the EQ-5D-3L in patients undergoing primary knee arthroplasty.Bone & joint research · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
aimsThe primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers.
methodsA model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden.
resultsBy November 2020, the elective waiting list in England is predicted to be between 885,286 and 1,028,733. If reduced hospital capacity is factored into the model, returning to full capacity by November, the waiting list could be as large as 1.4 million. With a 30% increase in productivity, it would take 20 months if there was no hidden burden of unreferred patients, and 48 months if there was a hidden burden, to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. By August 2020, the estimated deficits of hip and knee arthroplasties from NJR data were 18,298 (44.8%) and 16,567 (38.6%), respectively, compared to the same time period in 2019. The cost to clear this black log would be £198,811,335.
conclusionThere will be up to 1.4 million patients on elective orthopaedic waiting lists in England by November 2020, approximate three-times the pre-COVID-19 average. There are various strategies for recovery to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers reliant on increasing capacity, but these have substantial cost implications. Cite this article:
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.