ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021
Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 127 papers.
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127 citing papers in PubMed, 239 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Understanding how mobility and spatial disparities shape COVID-19 transmission under rotational and localized lockdowns.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Bayesian uncertainty quantification to identify population level vaccine hesitancy behaviours.PloS one · 2026Article
- COVID-19 and Cancer Care: A Review and Practical Guide to Caring for Cancer Patients in the Era of COVID-19.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2024Review
- Inference on spatiotemporal dynamics for coupled biological populations.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Human Behavior Changes on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the United States.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Hybrid-Capture Target Enrichment in Human Pathogens: Identification, Evolution, Biosurveillance, and Genomic Epidemiology.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Estimating actual SARS-CoV-2 infections from secondary data.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Reconstruction of incidence reporting rate for SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of COVID-19 pandemic in the US.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Advance Monitoring of COVID-19 Incidence Based on Taxi Mobility: The Infection Ratio Measure.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Source of SARS-CoV-2 infection: results from a series of 584,846 cases in France from October 2020 to August 2022.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Modeling the Impacts of Governmental and Human Responses on COVID-19 Spread Using Statistical Machine Learning.International journal of digital earth · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and antibody trajectories after easing of COVID-19 restrictions: a longitudinal study in China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Bayesian modeling of dynamic behavioral change during an epidemic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a Large US population Over a Period of 12 Months.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: An application to the Italian scenario.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Accurately summarizing an outbreak using epidemiological models takes time.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Bayesian sequential approach to monitor COVID-19 variants through test positivity rate from wastewater.mSystems · 2023Article
- Assessing individual risk and the latent transmission of COVID-19 in a population with an interaction-driven temporal model.Scientific reports · 2023Article
67 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The contributions of asymptomatic infections to herd immunity and community transmission are key to the resurgence and control of COVID-19, but are difficult to estimate using current models that ignore changes in testing capacity. Using a model that incorporates daily testing information fit to the case and serology data from New York City, we show that the proportion of symptomatic cases is low, ranging from 13 to 18%, and that the reproductive number may be larger than often assumed. Asymptomatic infections contribute substantially to herd immunity, and to community transmission together with presymptomatic ones. If asymptomatic infections transmit at similar rates as symptomatic ones, the overall reproductive number across all classes is larger than often assumed, with estimates ranging from 3.2 to 4.4. If they transmit poorly, then symptomatic cases have a larger reproductive number ranging from 3.9 to 8.1. Even in this regime, presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases together comprise at least 50% of the force of infection at the outbreak peak. We find no regimes in which all infection subpopulations have reproductive numbers lower than three. These findings elucidate the uncertainty that current case and serology data cannot resolve, despite consideration of different model structures. They also emphasize how temporal data on testing can reduce and better define this uncertainty, as we move forward through longer surveillance and second epidemic waves. Complementary information is required to determine the transmissibility of asymptomatic cases, which we discuss. Regardless, current assumptions about the basic reproductive number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) should be reconsidered.
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