ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021
The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 63 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
63 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Factors Associated with Mortality among Elderly People in the COVID-19 Pandemic (SARS-CoV-2): A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- Rapid Phylogeographic Inference of Regional Epidemic Dynamics for Routine Genomic Surveillance.Research square · 2026Article
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- Inferring epidemiological parameters under an infectious phylogeography model with visitor dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Bayesian Phylodynamic Inference of Multitype Population Trajectories Using Genomic Data.Molecular biology and evolution · 2025Article
- Evolutionary and epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in Germany exemplified by three Bayesian phylodynamic case studies.Bioinformatics and biology insights · 2025Article
- Phylogeographic evaluation of the effectiveness of Canadian travel restrictions in reducing SARS-CoV-2 variant importations and burden.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- PhyloJunction: A Computational Framework for Simulating, Developing, and Teaching Evolutionary Models.Systematic biology · 2024Article
- A macroevolutionary analysis of European Late Upper Palaeolithic stone tool shape using a Bayesian phylodynamic framework.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Importations of SARS-CoV-2 lineages decline after nonpharmaceutical interventions in phylogeographic analyses.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong.Systematic biology · 2024Article
- Targeted amplification-based whole genome sequencing ofMicrobiology spectrum · 2024Article
- PhyloJunction: a computational framework for simulating, developing, and teaching evolutionary models.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023Article
- Article
- Application of Phylodynamic Tools to Inform the Public Health Response to COVID-19: Qualitative Analysis of Expert Opinions.JMIR formative research · 2023Article
- Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intrahost evolution leading to distinct genotypes during chronic infection.Cell reports. Medicine · 2023Article
- Tracing the First Days of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in Greece and the Role of the First Imported Group of Travelers.Microbiology spectrum · 2022Article
- Wastewater Reveals the Spatiotemporal Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) during the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic.ACS ES&T water · 2022Article
- SOPHIE: Viral outbreak investigation and transmission history reconstruction in a joint phylogenetic and network theory framework.Cell systems · 2022Article
3 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The investigation of migratory patterns during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic before spring 2020 border closures in Europe is a crucial first step toward an in-depth evaluation of border closure policies. Here we analyze viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model with geographic structure to estimate the origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe prior to border closures. Based on SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we reconstruct a partial transmission tree of the early pandemic and coinfer the geographic location of ancestral lineages as well as the number of migration events into and between European regions. We find that the predominant lineage spreading in Europe during this time has a most recent common ancestor in Italy and was probably seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei, China or Germany. We do not find evidence for preferential migration paths from Hubei into different European regions or from each European region to the others. Sustained local transmission is first evident in Italy and then shortly thereafter in the other European regions considered. Before the first border closures in Europe, we estimate that the rate of occurrence of new cases from within-country transmission was within the bounds of the estimated rate of new cases from migration. In summary, our analysis offers a view on the early state of the epidemic in Europe and on migration patterns of the virus before border closures. This information will enable further study of the necessity and timeliness of border closures.
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