Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33569148›Full record

ArticleJournal for person-oriented research2020

Early Warning Signals Based on Momentary Affect Dynamics can Expose Nearby Transitions in Depression: A Confirmatory Single-Subject Time-Series Study.

Marieke Wichers, Arnout C Smit, Evelien Snippe

Open access · diamondAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal for person-oriented research, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
40citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
13.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

40 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 113 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Anticipating depression trajectories by measuring plasticity and change through symptom network dynamics.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2025
    Article
  7. Review
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Network analysis: An overview for mental health research.International journal of methods in psychiatric research · 2024
    Review
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. The 10th yearly volume of JPOR is complete.Journal for person-oriented research · 2024
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Elevated emotion network connectivity is associated with fluctuations in depression.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Marieke WichersUniversity of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG), Dept. of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion regulation (ICPE), Groningen, The Netherlands.
Arnout C SmitUniversity of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG), Dept. of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion regulation (ICPE), Groningen, The Netherlands.
Evelien SnippeUniversity of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG), Dept. of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion regulation (ICPE), Groningen, The Netherlands.
University Medical Center Groningen · NL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn complex systems early warning signals such as rising autocorrelation, variance and network connectivity are hypothesized to anticipate relevant shifts in a system. For direct evidence hereof in depression, designs are needed in which early warning signals and symptom transitions are prospectively assessed within an individual. Therefore, this study aimed to detect personalized early warning signals preceding the occurrence of a major symptom transition.

methodsSix single-subject time-series studies were conducted, collecting frequent observations of momentary affective states during a time-period when participants were at increased risk of a symptom transition. Momentary affect states were reported three times a day over three to six months (95-183 days). Depressive symptoms were measured weekly using the Symptom CheckList-90. Presence of sudden symptom transitions was assessed using change point analysis. Early warning signals were analysed using moving window techniques.

resultsAs change point analysis revealed a significant and sudden symptom transition in one participant in the studied period, early warning signals were examined in this person. Autocorrelation (

conclusionsThis study replicated the findings of a previous study and confirmed the presence of rising early warning signals a month before the symptom transition occurred. Results show the potential of early warning signals to improve personalized risk assessment in the field of psychiatry.

Indexed as

complex systemsdepressionearly warning signalsexperience sampling methodologymomentary mental statesnetworkstime-series analyses

Identifiers

PMID33569148
PMCPMC7842626
OpenAlexW3085042055

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.