ArticleScientific reports2021
Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic: controlled sanitary deconfinement in Portugal.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Fokker-Planck framework for control of epidemics.Journal of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- From node to network: weaving a global perspective on efficacy and costs of non-pharmaceutical interventions.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Optimal social distancing in epidemic control: cost prioritization, adherence and insights into preparedness principles.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- The application of machine learning algorithms for predicting length of stay before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Wuhan-area hospitals.Frontiers in digital health · 2024Article
- Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: An application to the Italian scenario.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Prediction of the morbidity and mortality rates of COVID-19 in Egypt using non-extensive statistics.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Predictive dynamical modeling and stability of the equilibria in a discrete fractional difference COVID-19 epidemic model.Results in physics · 2023Article
- Fertility Does not Quarantine: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic Impacts on in Vitro Fertilization Clinical Pregnancy Rates.Revista brasileira de ginecologia e obstetricia : revista da Federacao Brasileira das Sociedades de Ginecologia e Obstetricia · 2023Observational
- A discrete model for the evaluation of public policies: The case of Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic.PloS one · 2023Article
- Article
- Modeling the impact of combined use of COVID Alert SA app and vaccination to curb COVID-19 infections in South Africa.PloS one · 2023Article
- Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for Omicron strain.Physica A · 2022Article
- A patchy theoretical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 with optimal control.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Complex network model for COVID-19: Human behavior, pseudo-periodic solutions and multiple epidemic waves.Journal of mathematical analysis and applications · 2022Article
- Impact of government policies on the COVID-19 pandemic unraveled by mathematical modelling.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for a COVID-19 model with individual protection awareness.Physica A · 2022Article
- Recent advances in the vaccine development for the prophylaxis of SARS Covid-19.International immunopharmacology · 2022Review
- Assessing the risk of pandemic outbreaks across municipalities with mathematical descriptors based on age and mobility restrictions.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Perceptions and Representations of Senior Nursing Students about the Transition to Professional Life during the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Observational
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and the need to reopen their economies. The experience hitherto lived has provided data on the evolution of the pandemic, in particular the population dynamics as a result of the public health measures enacted. This allows the formulation of forecasting mathematical models to anticipate the consequences of political decisions. Here we propose a model to do so and apply it to the case of Portugal. With a mathematical deterministic model, described by a system of ordinary differential equations, we fit the real evolution of COVID-19 in this country. After identification of the population readiness to follow social restrictions, by analyzing the social media, we incorporate this effect in a version of the model that allow us to check different scenarios. This is realized by considering a Monte Carlo discrete version of the previous model coupled via a complex network. Then, we apply optimal control theory to maximize the number of people returning to "normal life" and minimizing the number of active infected individuals with minimal economical costs while warranting a low level of hospitalizations. This work allows testing various scenarios of pandemic management (closure of sectors of the economy, partial/total compliance with protection measures by citizens, number of beds in intensive care units, etc.), ensuring the responsiveness of the health system, thus being a public health decision support tool.
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