ArticleJournal of mathematical economics2021
The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19.
Article in Journal of mathematical economics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Employment type and policy compliance with strict measures during public health crises: evidence from self-employed workers in China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- A conceptual health state diagram for modelling the transmission of a (re)emerging infectious respiratory disease in a human population.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- An immuno-epidemiological model with waning immunity after infection or vaccination.Journal of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- Impact of a COVID-19-Related Lockdown on the Experience of Informal Caregiving in Singapore.Gerontology · 2024Article
- Changes and interruptions during COVID-19: caregivers of people with brain health challenges-A qualitative analysis.Frontiers in dementia · 2024Article
- The hammer and the jab: Are COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccinations complements or substitutes?European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- The interplay of social constraints and individual variation in risk tolerance in the emergence of superspreaders.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Path integral control of a stochastic multi-risk SIR pandemic model.Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften · 2023Article
- Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic.European journal of operational research · 2023Article
- Intervention uncertainty, household health, and pandemic.Journal of mathematical economics · 2023Article
- Optimal vaccination strategies using a distributed model applied to COVID-19.Central European journal of operations research · 2023Article
- Designing an optimal sequence of non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19.European journal of operational research · 2022Article
- The macroeconomic implications of disease pandemics in developing countries: An application of Covid-19 in Uganda.Journal of international development · 2022Article
- Analysis of optimal lockdown in integral economic-epidemic model.Economic theory · 2022Article
- An optimal control policy in fighting COVID-19 and infectious diseases.Applied soft computing · 2022Article
- Chasing up and locking down the virus: Optimal pandemic interventions within a network.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- Ambiguity in a pandemic recession, asset prices, and lockdown policy.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- Mitigating virus spread through dynamic control of community-based social interactions for infection rate and cost.Social network analysis and mining · 2022Article
- Should the COVID-19 lockdown be relaxed or intensified in case a vaccine becomes available?PloS one · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
One of the principal ways nations are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is by locking down portions of their economies to reduce infectious spread. This is expensive in terms of lost jobs, lost economic productivity, and lost freedoms. So it is of interest to ask: What is the optimal intensity with which to lockdown, and how should that intensity vary dynamically over the course of an epidemic? This paper explores such questions with an optimal control model that recognizes the particular risks when infection rates surge beyond the healthcare system's capacity to deliver appropriate care. The analysis shows that four broad strategies emerge, ranging from brief lockdowns that only "smooth the curve" to sustained lockdowns that prevent infections from spiking beyond the healthcare system's capacity. Within this model, it can be optimal to have two separate periods of locking down, so returning to a lockdown after initial restrictions have been lifted is not necessarily a sign of failure. Relatively small changes in judgments about how to balance health and economic harms can alter dramatically which strategy prevails. Indeed, there are constellations of parameters for which two or even three of these distinct strategies can all perform equally well for the same set of initial conditions; these correspond to so-called triple Skiba points. The performance of trajectories can be highly nonlinear in the state variables, such that for various times
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