Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33558571›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2021

Modeling the effect of lockdown timing as a COVID-19 control measure in countries with differing social contacts.

Tamer Oraby, Michael G Tyshenko, Jose Campo Maldonado, Kristina Vatcheva, Susie Elsaadany, Walid Q Alali, Joseph C Longenecker, Mustafa Al-Zoughool

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 60 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
60citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

60 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Incorporating Social Determinants of Health in Infectious Disease Models: A Systematic Review of Guidelines.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024
    Pooled it
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  4. Optimizing infectious disease mitigation under dynamic conditions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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  19. Can the Content of Social Networks Explain Epidemic Outbreaks?Population research and policy review · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Tamer OrabySchool of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, 78539, USA. tamer.oraby@utrgv.edu.
Michael G TyshenkoMcLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5, Canada.
Jose Campo MaldonadoSchool of Medicine, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, 78539, USA.
Kristina VatchevaSchool of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Edinburg, TX, 78539, USA.
Susie ElsaadanyDepartment of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, K1H 8M5, Canada.
Walid Q AlaliDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University, 13110, Safat, Kuwait.
Joseph C LongeneckerDepartment of Public Health Practice, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University, 13110, Safat, Kuwait.
Mustafa Al-ZoughoolDepartment of Environmental and Occupational Health, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University, 13110, Safat, Kuwait.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The application, timing, and duration of lockdown strategies during a pandemic remain poorly quantified with regards to expected public health outcomes. Previous projection models have reached conflicting conclusions about the effect of complete lockdowns on COVID-19 outcomes. We developed a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model with eight states including the environment (SEAMHQRD-V), and derived a formula for the basic reproduction number, R

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Social InteractionAdolescentAdultAgedBasic Reproduction NumberCanadaChildChild, PreschoolChinaCOVID-19HospitalizationHumansIncidence

Identifiers

PMID33558571
PMCPMC7870675

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.