ArticleNature communications2021
Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- Family identity as cultural capital: intergenerational solidarity and public health compliance in pandemic governance.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Perspective Overview of Changing Population Immunity to COVID-19 in the Context of Infection, Vaccination, and Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Robust uncertainty quantification in popular estimators of the instantaneous reproduction number.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Analysis and prediction of the incidence temporal trends of echinococcosis in China from 2010 to 2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater as an earlier predictor of COVID-19 epidemic peaks in Venezuela.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Impact of waning immunity against SARS-CoV-2 severity exacerbated by vaccine hesitancy.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Increasing intensity of enterovirus outbreaks projected with climate change.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Differential responses of SARS-CoV-2 variants to environmental drivers during their selective sweeps.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Scenario analysis of COVID-19 dynamical variations by different social environmental factors: a case study in Xinjiang.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Seasonality of endemic COVID-19.mBio · 2023Article
- The unseen toll: excess mortality during covid-19 lockdowns.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.Science advances · 2023Article
- Long-term benefits of nonpharmaceutical interventions for endemic infections are shaped by respiratory pathogen dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Seasonal variation in the transmission rate of covid-19 in a temperate climate can be implemented in epidemic population models by using daily average temperature as a proxy for seasonal changes in transmission rate.Microbial risk analysis · 2022Article
- Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England's roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Factors responsible for the emergence of novel viruses: An emphasis on SARS-CoV-2.Current opinion in environmental science & health · 2022Review
- COVID-19 pandemic over 2020 (withlockdowns) and 2021 (with vaccinations): similar effects for seasonality and environmental factors.Environmental research · 2022Article
- Innate and Adaptive Immune Responses in the Upper Respiratory Tract and the Infectivity of SARS-CoV-2.Viruses · 2022Review
- Infectious disease in an era of global change.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions.
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