A Model for World-Class 10,000 m Running Performances: Strategy and Optimization.

The distribution of energetic resources in world-class distance running is a key aspect of performance, with athletes relying on aerobic and anaerobic metabolism to greater extents during different parts of the race. The purpose of this study is to model 10,000 m championship performances to enable a deeper understanding of the factors affecting running speed and, given that more than half the race is run on curves, to establish the effect of the bends on performance. Because a limitation of time split data is that they are typically averaged over 100-m or 1,000-m segments, we simulate two 10,000 m runners' performances and thus get access to their instantaneous speed, propulsive force and anaerobic energy. The numerical simulations provide information on the factors that affect performance, and we precisely see the effect of parameters that influence race strategy, fatigue, and the ability to speed up and deal with bends. In particular, a lower anaerobic capacity leads to an inability to accelerate at the end of the race, and which can accrue because of a reliance on anaerobic energy to maintain pace in an athlete of inferior running economy. We also see that a runner with a worse running economy is less able to speed up on the straights and that, in general, the bends are run slower than the straights, most likely because bend running at the same pace would increase energy expenditure. Notwithstanding a recommendation for adopting the accepted practices of improving aerobic and anaerobic metabolism through appropriate training methods, coaches are advised to note that athletes who avoid mid-race surges can improve their endspurt, which are the differentiating element in closely contested championship races.