Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33546639›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021

An easy-to-use nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality risk in COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study in a university hospital.

Hazal Cansu Acar, Günay Can, Rıdvan Karaali, Şermin Börekçi, İlker İnanç Balkan, Bilun Gemicioğlu, Dildar Konukoğlu, Ethem Erginöz, Mehmet Sarper Erdoğan, Fehmi Tabak

Open access · goldAbstract readEvaluation Study
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.1field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 33 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Hazal Cansu AcarDepartment of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey. hazal.acar@istanbul.edu.tr.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9244-3818
Günay CanDepartment of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey.
Rıdvan KaraaliDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey.
Şermin BörekçiDepartment of Pulmonary Diseases, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey.
İlker İnanç BalkanDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey.
Bilun GemicioğluDepartment of Pulmonary Diseases, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey.
Dildar KonukoğluDepartment of Biochemistry, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey.
Ethem ErginözDepartment of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey.
Mehmet Sarper ErdoğanDepartment of Public Health, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey.
Fehmi TabakDepartment of Infectious Diseases, Cerrahpasa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Kocamustafapasa, Fatih, 34098, Istanbul, Turkey.
Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa · TR

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundOne-fifth of COVID-19 patients are seriously and critically ill cases and have a worse prognosis than non-severe cases. Although there is no specific treatment available for COVID-19, early recognition and supportive treatment may reduce the mortality. The aim of this study is to develop a functional nomogram that can be used by clinicians to estimate the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized and treated for COVID-19 disease, and to compare the accuracy of model predictions with previous nomograms.

methodsThis retrospective study enrolled 709 patients who were over 18 years old and received inpatient treatment for COVID-19 disease. Multivariable Logistic Regression analysis was performed to assess the possible predictors of a fatal outcome. A nomogram was developed with the possible predictors and total point were calculated.

resultsOf the 709 patients treated for COVID-19, 75 (11%) died and 634 survived. The elder age, certain comorbidities (cancer, heart failure, chronic renal failure), dyspnea, lower levels of oxygen saturation and hematocrit, higher levels of C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase and ferritin were independent risk factors for mortality. The prediction ability of total points was excellent (Area Under Curve = 0.922).

conclusionsThe nomogram developed in this study can be used by clinicians as a practical and effective tool in mortality risk estimation. So that with early diagnosis and intervention mortality in COVID-19 patients may be reduced.

Indexed as

Hospital MortalityNomogramsSARS-CoV-2AdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsCOVID-19FemaleHospitals, UniversityHumansMaleMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisRetrospective StudiesCOVID-19Fatal outcomeMortalityNomogramRisk factor

Identifiers

PMID33546639
PMCPMC7862983
OpenAlexW3126716190

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.