Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33544024›Full record

ArticleHuman vaccines & immunotherapeutics2021

Anticipated reduction in COVID-19 mortality due to population-wide BCG vaccination: evidence from Germany.

Daniela Marín-Hernández, Douglas F Nixon, Nathaniel Hupert

Open access · hybridAbstract readLetter
In one paragraph

Article in Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.4field-weighted citation impact, top 20% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 19 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Heterologous vaccination interventions to reduce pandemic morbidity and mortality: Modeling the US winter 2020 COVID-19 wave.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Diverse Manifestations of COVID-19: Some Suggested Mechanisms.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Review
  12. Review
  13. Coronavirus infection: An immunologists' perspective.Scandinavian journal of immunology · 2021
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Daniela Marín-HernándezDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Belfer Research Building, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1362-6881
Douglas F NixonDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, Belfer Research Building, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2801-1786
Nathaniel HupertDepartment of Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7590-3680
Cornell University · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is known to have "bystander benefits" in protecting against heterologous infections; interim analysis of the "ACTIVATE" trial shows protection against respiratory infections in the elderly population. Epidemiologic studies suggest a potential benefit of BCG vaccination on COVID-19 outcomes. Differential past BCG vaccination policies between the former East and West German states provides a unique natural experiment to assess the potential effect of prior BCG vaccination on COVID-19. We estimated a 5% heterologous vaccine efficacy in the highly vaccinated former East Germany using the COVID-19 International Modeling (CoMo) Consortium model. A comparable BCG vaccination campaign undertaken prior to the pandemic in former West Germany, instituted along with known country-wide transmission reduction measures, is associated with a 37% decrease in projected mortality by mid-summer, 2020. These findings support a combined heterologous vaccine and non-pharmaceutical interventions (HVI+NPI) approach to mitigate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic until SARS-CoV-2 specific vaccines are widely distributed.

Indexed as

BCG VaccineCOVID-19AgedGermanyHumansSARS-CoV-2VaccinationBCG VaccineBCGCoMo modelHeterologous effectsmathematical modelmodel-based experimentnon-pharmaceutical-interventionsSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID33544024
PMCPMC8475553
OpenAlexW3128731793

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.