Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33541353›Full record

ArticleBMC medicine2021

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories.

Yang Liu, Christian Morgenstern, James Kelly, Rachel Lowe, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Mark Jit

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 221 papers, 16 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
221citing papers in PubMed, 16 pooled it
35.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

221 citing papers in PubMed, 16 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 429 citations in OpenAlex.

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  5. Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023
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  8. Investigation of the diagnostic performance of the SARS-CoV-2 saliva antigen test: A meta-analysis.Journal of microbiology, immunology, and infection = Wei mian yu gan ran za zhi · 2022
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  20. Reassessing Early COVID-19 Strategies in East Asia: Insights From Japan and Korea.Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi · 2026
    Review

161 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Yang Liu *Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Christian Morgenstern *IPM Informed Portfolio Management, London, UK.
James KellyIPM Informed Portfolio Management, London, UK.
Rachel LoweCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
Mark JitCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. mark.jit@lshtm.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-6658-8255
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_19065Medical Research Council MRC_PC_19065Medical Research Council MR/P014658/1Medical Research Council MR/S003975/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are used to reduce transmission of SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of specific NPIs has been inconsistent. We assessed the effectiveness of NPIs around internal containment and closure, international travel restrictions, economic measures, and health system actions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 130 countries and territories.

methodsWe used panel (longitudinal) regression to estimate the effectiveness of 13 categories of NPIs in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using data from January to June 2020. First, we examined the temporal association between NPIs using hierarchical cluster analyses. We then regressed the time-varying reproduction number (R

resultsThere was strong evidence for an association between two NPIs (school closure, internal movement restrictions) and reduced R

conclusionUnderstanding the impact that specific NPIs have had on SARS-CoV-2 transmission is complicated by temporal clustering, time-dependent variation in effects, and differences in NPI intensity. However, the effectiveness of school closure and internal movement restrictions appears robust across different model specifications, with some evidence that other NPIs may also be effective under particular conditions. This provides empirical evidence for the potential effectiveness of many, although not all, actions policy-makers are taking to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Indexed as

Physical DistancingContact TracingCOVID-19HumansPandemicsQuarantineSARS-CoV-2SchoolsTime FactorsCOVID-19Health impact assessmentLongitudinal analysisNon-pharmaceutical interventionsPandemicPolicy evaluationPublic health interventionQuantitativeSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID33541353
PMCPMC7861967
OpenAlexW3128528571

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.