ArticleDisasters2021
Covid-19's impact on China's economy: a prediction model based on railway transportation statistics.
Article in Disasters, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Economic Impact Evaluation of COVID-19 Public Health Management Across Countries.The International journal of health planning and management · 2026Article
- The coming Omicron waves and factors affecting its spread after China reopening borders.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2023Article
- Professional Identity among New Rehabilitation Graduates in China: A Cross-Sectional Questionnaire-Based Survey.Ethiopian journal of health sciences · 2023Article
- Exploring the potential role of bikeshare to complement public transit: The case of San Francisco amid the coronavirus crisis.Cities (London, England) · 2023Article
- Did Human Microbes Affect Tourist Arrivals before the COVID-19 Shock? Pre-Effect Forecasting Model for Slovenia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The outbreak of Covid-19 in China during the Spring Festival of 2020 has changed life as we knew it. To explore its impact on China's economy, we analyse the daily railway passenger volume data during the Spring Festival travel rush and establish two RegARMA models to predict GDP in the first quarter. The models forecast China might lose 4.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2020 due to Covid-19, an expected decrease of 20.69 percent (year-on-year drop 15.60 percent). However, comparing our forecast GDP without Covid-19 (23.2 trillion yuan) with the real GDP (20.65 trillion yuan), there is a smaller drop of 2.55 trillion yuan, a gap of 12.35 percent. The reason for this overestimation is that some positive factors, including macro-control policies, are neglected in these models. With the global spread of Covid-19, China should adopt a policy of focusing on balancing both domestic and external affairs against the instability of the world economy.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.