ArticleBMJ open2021
How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Determining six-month prognosis among people with dementia living in care homes: a systematic review of prognostic tools.Age and ageing · 2026Pooled it
- Total uncertainty: a systematic review and thematic synthesis of experiences of uncertainty in older people with advanced multimorbidity, their informal carers and health professionals.Age and ageing · 2022Pooled it
- Application of a person-centered prescription model improves pharmacotherapeutic indicators and reduces costs associated with pharmacological treatment in hospitalized older patients at the end of life.Frontiers in public health · 2022Trial
- Participatory System Mapping of a Hospice Care System With Hospice Stakeholders: Hybrid Design Workshop Study.Journal of participatory medicine · 2026Article
- Detecting Distress in Cognitively Impaired People to Prevent Suffering: Protocol for an Observational Feasibility Study of a Radar-Based Technology Augmented with Photoplethysmographic Sensors and Audio Signals (SURREAL).Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Advance care planning for patients with advanced multiple long-term conditions: a qualitative thematic analysis of health and social care professionals' perspectives.BMC palliative care · 2026Article
- Hidden work and blurred boundaries: a qualitative study of how community nurses navigate and adapt injectable medication processes to provide timely end-of-life symptom control.BMC palliative care · 2026Article
- Article
- Estimating the need for palliative care services in Australia by 2042.BMC palliative care · 2026Article
- Assessing palliative care needs in Swabia: a data-driven simulation framework for hospice and specialized outpatient palliative care demand.BMC palliative care · 2026Article
- Growing palliative and end-of-life care research in the United Kingdom: Findings from a mixed methods survey.PloS one · 2026Article
- A Point Prevalence Study of Need and Provision of Palliative Care in Adult and Medical Surgical Inpatients.Journal of clinical nursing · 2025Observational
- Adopting the lens of the COM-B behaviour change model to qualitatively explore and understand public health implications of young adults' attitudes towards death-talk.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Challenges to timely access to out-of-hours end-of-life medications: a qualitative study in UK primary care.The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners · 2025Article
- Communicating prognostic uncertainties in advanced multimorbidity: a multimethod qualitative study to co-design practice recommendations.European geriatric medicine · 2025Article
- Deaths at home during COVID-19 in Scotland: Demographics, multimorbidity, and palliative care needs in population data.International journal of population data science · 2025Article
- Close-Up on Ambulance Service Estimation in Indonesia: Monte Carlo Simulation Study.Interactive journal of medical research · 2024Article
- Estimates of population-level palliative care need in the UK: a descriptive analysis of mortality data before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC palliative care · 2024Article
- Past trends and future projections of palliative care needs in Chile: analysis of routinely available death registry and population data.BMC medicine · 2024Article
- Implementation of a digital distress detection system in palliative care: qualitative data on perspectives of a multiprofessional palliative care team.BMC palliative care · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo estimate future palliative care need and complexity of need in Scotland, and to identify priorities for future service delivery.
designWe estimated the prevalence of palliative care need by analysing the proportion of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses. We described linear projections up to 2040 using national death registry data and official mortality forecasts. An expert consultation and subsequent online consensus survey generated recommendations on meeting future palliative care need.
settingScotland, population of 5.4 million.
participantsAll decedents in Scotland over 11 years (2007 to 2017). The consultation had 34 participants; 24 completed the consensus survey. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Estimates of past and future palliative care need in Scotland from 2007 up to 2040. Multimorbidity was operationalised as two or more registered causes of death from different disease groups (cancer, organ failure, dementia, other). Consultation and survey data were analysed descriptively.
resultsWe project that by 2040, the number of people requiring palliative care will increase by at least 14%; and by 20% if we factor in multimorbidity. The number of people dying from multiple diseases associated with different disease groups is projected to increase from 27% of all deaths in 2017 to 43% by 2040. To address increased need and complexity, experts prioritised sustained investment in a national digital platform, roll-out of integrated electronic health and social care records; and approaches that remain person-centred.
conclusionsBy 2040 more people in Scotland are projected to die with palliative care needs, and the complexity of need will increase markedly. Service delivery models must adapt to serve growing demand and complexity associated with dying from multiple diseases from different disease groups. We need sustained investment in secure, accessible, integrated and person-centred health and social care digital systems, to improve care coordination and optimise palliative care for people across care settings.
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