ArticleScience advances2020
Vaccine optimization for COVID-19: Who to vaccinate first?
Article in Science advances, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 231 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
231 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review.Journal of global health · 2023Pooled it
- Long-term safety and effectiveness of mRNA-1273 vaccine in adults: COVE trial open-label and booster phases.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- Optimal timing for staged vaccination campaigns: Insights from scenario tree-based stochastic optimization.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Efficacy versus coverage: population-level impacts of vaccination schemes.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- A compartmental model of variant coexistence, dynamics and dominance in infectious diseases: Case for SARS-CoV-2 in Abu Dhabi.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Proposal of a Vaccination Needs Index to Prioritise Municipal Interventions in Brazil.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2026Article
- Article
- Optimizing vaccine allocation: a review of epidemiological models with behavioral adaptation.Clinical and experimental vaccine research · 2026Review
- A Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Framework for Public Health Decision Analysis.Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) · 2025Article
- A descriptive investigation of the impact of statewide distribution policies and consumer vulnerabilities on COVID-19 vaccination in the united States.Health care management science · 2025Article
- Equity considerations in COVID-19 vaccine allocation modelling: a methodological study.Interface focus · 2025Review
- Article
- Evaluating COVID-19 vaccination policy in Québec (Canada) using a data-driven dynamic transmission model.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Vaccination strategies for different contact patterns: weighing epidemiological against economic outcomes.International journal of health economics and management · 2025Article
- Protect or prevent? A practicable framework for the dilemmas of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization.PloS one · 2025Article
- Network analysis of adverse event patterns following immunization with mRNA COVID-19 vaccines: real-world data from the European pharmacovigilance database EudraVigilance.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
171 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Vaccines, when available, will likely become our best tool to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, vaccine shortages will likely occur. Using an age-stratified mathematical model paired with optimization algorithms, we determined optimal vaccine allocation for four different metrics (deaths, symptomatic infections, and maximum non-ICU and ICU hospitalizations) under many scenarios. We find that a vaccine with effectiveness ≥50% would be enough to substantially mitigate the ongoing pandemic, provided that a high percentage of the population is optimally vaccinated. When minimizing deaths, we find that for low vaccine effectiveness, irrespective of vaccination coverage, it is optimal to allocate vaccine to high-risk (older) age groups first. In contrast, for higher vaccine effectiveness, there is a switch to allocate vaccine to high-transmission (younger) age groups first for high vaccination coverage. While there are other societal and ethical considerations, this work can provide an evidence-based rationale for vaccine prioritization.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.