Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33536041›Full record

ArticleGenome medicine2021

Improved prediction of fracture risk leveraging a genome-wide polygenic risk score.

Tianyuan Lu, Vincenzo Forgetta, Julyan Keller-Baruch, Maria Nethander, Derrick Bennett, Marie Forest, Sahir Bhatnagar, Robin G Walters, Kuang Lin, Zhengming Chen and 11 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Genome medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
8.7field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

43 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 65 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Impact of Genetics on Endocrine Manifestations of Cystic Fibrosis.Endocrine practice : official journal of the American College of Endocrinology and the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists · 2026
    Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. The gSOS polygenic score is associated with bone density and fracture risk in childhood.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2025
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Race-specific FRAX models are evidence-based and support equitable care: a response to the ASBMR Task Force report on Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Enhanced fracture risk prediction: a novel multi-trait genetic approach integrating polygenic scores of fracture-related traits.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024
    Article
  19. Review
  20. Enhanced osteoporotic fracture prediction in postmenopausal women using Bayesian optimization of machine learning models with genetic risk score.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors at 11 institutions in 6 countries.

Tianyuan Lu *Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Room H-413, 3755 Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 1E2, Canada.
Vincenzo Forgetta *Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Room H-413, 3755 Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 1E2, Canada.
Julyan Keller-BaruchCentre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Room H-413, 3755 Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 1E2, Canada.
Maria NethanderCentre for Bone and Arthritis Research, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Derrick BennettClinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Marie ForestCentre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Room H-413, 3755 Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 1E2, Canada.
Sahir BhatnagarDepartment of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
Robin G WaltersClinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Kuang LinClinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Zhengming ChenClinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Liming LiSchool of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, China.
Magnus KarlssonClinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Orthopedics and Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Dan MellströmCentre for Bone and Arthritis Research, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Eric OrwollBone & Mineral Unit, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, USA.
Eugene V McCloskeyMellanby Centre for Bone Research, Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
John A KanisCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
William D LeslieDepartment of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.
Robert J ClarkeClinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Claes OhlssonCentre for Bone and Arthritis Research, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Celia M T GreenwoodCentre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Room H-413, 3755 Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 1E2, Canada.
J Brent RichardsCentre for Clinical Epidemiology, Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, Jewish General Hospital, Room H-413, 3755 Chemin de la Côte-Sainte-Catherine, Montreal, Quebec, H3T 1E2, Canada. brent.richards@mcgill.ca.
Jewish General Hospital · CAUniversity of Oxford · GBUniversity of Gothenburg · SEMcGill University · CAAustralian Catholic University · AUNational Institute for Health Research · GBOregon Health & Science University · USPeking University · CNSkåne University Hospital · SEUniversity of Manitoba · CAUniversity of Sheffield · GB

Funding

CIHR 365825CIHR 409511Medical Research Council MC_PC_13049Medical Research Council MC_PC_14135Medical Research Council MC_U137686851Medical Research Council MC_UU_00017/1Medical Research Council MC_UU_12026/2Wellcome Trust 212946/Z/18/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAccurately quantifying the risk of osteoporotic fracture is important for directing appropriate clinical interventions. While skeletal measures such as heel quantitative speed of sound (SOS) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density are able to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, the utility of such measurements is subject to the availability of equipment and human resources. Using data from 341,449 individuals of white British ancestry, we previously developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS), called gSOS, that captured 25.0% of the total variance in SOS. Here, we test whether gSOS can improve fracture risk prediction.

methodsWe examined the predictive power of gSOS in five genome-wide genotyped cohorts, including 90,172 individuals of European ancestry and 25,034 individuals of Asian ancestry. We calculated gSOS for each individual and tested for the association between gSOS and incident major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. We tested whether adding gSOS to the risk prediction models had added value over models using other commonly used clinical risk factors.

resultsA standard deviation decrease in gSOS was associated with an increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in populations of European ancestry, with odds ratios ranging from 1.35 to 1.46 in four cohorts. It was also associated with a 1.26-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.41) increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in the Asian population. We demonstrated that gSOS was more predictive of incident major osteoporotic fracture (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.734; 95% CI 0.727-0.740) and incident hip fracture (AUROC = 0.798; 95% CI 0.791-0.805) than most traditional clinical risk factors, including prior fracture, use of corticosteroids, rheumatoid arthritis, and smoking. We also showed that adding gSOS to the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) could refine the risk prediction with a positive net reclassification index ranging from 0.024 to 0.072.

conclusionsWe generated and validated a PRS for SOS which was associated with the risk of fracture. This score was more strongly associated with the risk of fracture than many clinical risk factors and provided an improvement in risk prediction. gSOS should be explored as a tool to improve risk stratification to identify individuals at high risk of fracture.

Indexed as

Genome-Wide Association StudyRisk AssessmentAdultAgedAsian PeopleBone DensityEuropeFemaleFractures, BoneGenome, HumanHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedMultifactorial InheritanceOsteoporotic Fractures

Identifiers

PMID33536041
PMCPMC7860212
OpenAlexW3128672366

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.