Comprehensive analysis of genomic mutation signature and tumor mutation burden for prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

backgroundIntrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a highly lethal malignancy of the biliary tract. Analysis of somatic mutational profiling can reveal new prognostic markers and actionable treatment targets. In this study, we explored the utility of genomic mutation signature and tumor mutation burden (TMB) in predicting prognosis in iCCA patients.

methodsWhole-exome sequencing and corresponding clinical data were collected from the ICGC portal and cBioPortal database to detect the prognostic mutated genes and determine TMB values. To identify the hub prognostic mutant signature, we used Cox regression and Lasso feature selection. Mutation-related signature (MRS) was constructed using multivariate Cox regression. The predictive performances of MRS and TMB were assessed using Kaplan-Meier (KM) analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC). We performed a functional enrichment pathway analysis using gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) for mutated genes. Based on the MRS, TMB, and the TNM stage, a nomogram was constructed to visualize prognosis in iCCA patients.

resultsThe mutation landscape illustrated distributions of mutation frequencies and types in iCCA, and generated a list of most frequently mutated genes (such as Tp53, KRAS, ARID1A, and IDH1). Thirty-two mutated genes associated with overall survival (OS) were identified in iCCA patients. We obtained a six-gene signature using the Lasso and Cox method. AUCs for the MRS in the prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.759, 0.732, and 0.728, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant difference in prognosis for patients with iCCA having a high and low MRS score (P < 0.001). GSEA was used to show that several signaling pathways, including MAPK, PI3K-AKT, and proteoglycan, were involved in cancer. Conversely, survival analysis indicated that TMB was significantly associated with prognosis. GSEA indicated that samples with high MRS or TMB also showed an upregulated expression of pathways involved in tumor signaling and the immune response. Finally, the predictive nomogram (that included MRS, TMB, and the TNM stage) demonstrated satisfactory performance in predicting survival in patients with iCCA.

conclusionsMutation-related signature and TMB were associated with prognosis in patients with iCCA. Our study provides a valuable prognostic predictor for determining outcomes in patients with iCCA.