ArticleMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2021
The Use and Misuse of Mathematical Modeling for Infectious Disease Policymaking: Lessons for the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Article in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Incorporating Social Determinants of Health in Infectious Disease Models: A Systematic Review of Guidelines.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024Pooled it
- Impact of Structural Differences on the Modeled Cost-Effectiveness of Noninvasive Prenatal Testing.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024Pooled it
- Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2022Pooled it
- Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2022Pooled it
- Mapping the local effectiveness of mass drug administration for malaria using transportability methods.Nature health · 2026Article
- Infectious disease modeling for public health practice: projections, scenarios, and uncertainty in three phases of outbreak response.American journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Data generation and modeling during COVID-19: utility, barriers, and priorities for future investments in public health response.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Infectious disease modeling for public health practice: projections, scenarios, and uncertainty in three phases of outbreak response.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Modelling practices, data provisioning, sharing and dissemination needs for pandemic decision-making: a European survey-based modellers' perspective, 2020 to 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Cross-validation-based sequential design for stochastic models.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025Article
- Challenges and opportunities in uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025Review
- What Lessons can Be Learned From the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic?International journal of public health · 2025Review
- The decision uncertainty toolkit: Risk measures and visual outputs to support decision making during public health crises.PloS one · 2025Article
- The utility of infectious disease modelling in informing decisions for outbreak response: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- A framework for handling uncertainty in a large-scale programme estimating the Global Burden of Animal Diseases.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2025Article
- Open-sourced modeling and simulating tools for decision-makers during an emerging pandemic or epidemic - Systematic evaluation of utility and usability: A scoping review update.Dialogues in health · 2024Article
- How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Review
- Ethics of Mathematical Modeling in Public Health: The Case of Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Africa.Public health ethics · 2024Article
- Canada's provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2024Review
- Fractional epidemic model of coronavirus disease with vaccination and crowding effects.Scientific reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Mathematical modeling has played a prominent and necessary role in the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with an increasing number of models being developed to track and project the spread of the disease, as well as major decisions being made based on the results of these studies. A proliferation of models, often diverging widely in their projections, has been accompanied by criticism of the validity of modeled analyses and uncertainty as to when and to what extent results can be trusted. Drawing on examples from COVID-19 and other infectious diseases of global importance, we review key limitations of mathematical modeling as a tool for interpreting empirical data and informing individual and public decision making. We present several approaches that have been used to strengthen the validity of inferences drawn from these analyses, approaches that will enable better decision making in the current COVID-19 crisis and beyond.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.