Survival prediction in glioblastoma on post-contrast magnetic resonance imaging using filtration based first-order texture analysis: Comparison of multiple machine learning models.

objectiveMagnetic resonance texture analysis (MRTA) is a relatively new technique that can be a valuable addition to clinical and imaging parameters in predicting prognosis. In the present study, we investigated the efficacy of MRTA for glioblastoma survival using T1 contrast-enhanced (CE) images for texture analysis.

methodsWe evaluated the diagnostic performance of multiple machine learning models based on first-order histogram statistical parameters derived from T1-weighted CE images in the survival stratification of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). Retrospective evaluation of 85 patients with GBM was performed. Thirty-six first-order texture parameters at six spatial scale filters (SSF) were extracted on the T1 CE axial images for the whole tumor using commercially available research software. Several machine learning classification models (in four broad categories: linear, penalized linear, non-linear, and ensemble classifiers) were evaluated to assess the survival prediction performance using optimal features. Principal component analysis was used prior to fitting the linear classifiers in order to reduce the dimensionality of the feature inputs. Fivefold cross-validation was used to partition the data iteratively into training and testing sets. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the diagnostic performance.

resultsThe neural network model was the highest performing model with the highest observed AUC (0.811) and cross-validated AUC (0.71). The most important variable was the age at diagnosis, with mean and mean of positive pixels (MPP) for SSF = 0 being the second and third most important, followed by skewness for SSF = 0 and SSF = 4.

conclusionsFirst-order texture features, when combined with age at presentation, show good accuracy in predicting GBM survival.