ArticleEpidemiology and infection2021
Challenge of forecasting demand of medical resources and supplies during a pandemic: A comparative evaluation of three surge calculators for COVID-19.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Optimizing Emergency Response in Hospitals: A Systematic Review of Surge Capacity Planning and Crisis Resource Management.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Forecasting ward-level bed requirements to aid pandemic resource planning: Lessons learned and future directions.Health care management science · 2023Article
- Indirect Dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 Live-Attenuated Vaccine and Its Contribution to Herd Immunity.Vaccines · 2023Review
- Advancing supply chain management from agility to hyperagility: a dynamic capability view.Annals of operations research · 2023Article
- Safety-Stock: Predicting the demand for supplies in Brazilian hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic.Knowledge-based systems · 2022Article
- Article
- Trends of Multidrug-Resistant Pathogens, Difficult to Treat Bloodstream Infections, and Antimicrobial Consumption at a Tertiary Care Center in Lebanon from 2015-2020: COVID-19 Aftermath.Antibiotics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Questioning the sex-specific differences in the association of smoking on the survival rate of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.PloS one · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Ever since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic, there has been a public health debate concerning medical resources and supplies including hospital beds, intensive care units (ICU), ventilators and protective personal equipment (PPE). Forecasting COVID-19 dissemination has played a key role in informing healthcare professionals and governments on how to manage overburdened healthcare systems. However, forecasting during the pandemic remained challenging and sometimes highly controversial. Here, we highlight this challenge by performing a comparative evaluation for the estimations obtained from three COVID-19 surge calculators under different social distancing approaches, taking Lebanon as a case study. Despite discrepancies in estimations, the three surge calculators used herein agree that there will be a relative shortage in the capacity of medical resources and a significant surge in PPE demand if the social distancing policy is removed. Our results underscore the importance of implementing containment interventions including social distancing in alleviating the demand for medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of any medication or vaccine. The paper also highlights the value of employing several models in surge planning.
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