ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2021
Dynamical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic: Estimation from cases in Colombia.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Bayesian estimator of the real-time case fatality rate in emerging pandemic to inform public health policy-making.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Article
- A multistate model and its standalone tool to predict hospital and ICU occupancy by patients with COVID-19.Heliyon · 2023Article
- A novel method to monitor COVID-19 fatality rate in real-time, a key metric to guide public health policy.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Stochastic Dynamics of the COVID-19 Case-Fatality Ratios in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines: Economic Implications for the Post-COVID-19 Era.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveTo characterize the dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, for modeling purposes.
methodsData from Colombian official case information were collated for a period of 5 months. Dynamical parameters of the disease spread were then estimated from the data. Probability distribution models were identified, representing the time from symptom onset to hospitalization, to intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and to death. Kaplan-Meier estimates were also computed for the probability of eventually requiring hospitalization, needing ICU attention, and dying from the disease (the case fatality ratio).
resultsProbability distributions of the times and probabilities were computed for the population and for groups based on age and sex. The results showed that for the times that characterize the course of the disease for a given patient (time to hospitalization, ICU admission, or death), the variation from one age group to another was very small (around 10% of the fixed effect intercept) and the effect of sex was even smaller (around 1%). The course of the disease appeared to be very similar for all patients. On the other hand, the probability that a patient would advance from one stage of the disease to another (to hospitalization, ICU admission, or death) was heavily influenced by sex and age. The relative risk of death for male individuals was 1.7 times that of female individuals (based on 22 924 deaths).
conclusionsThe times from one stage of the disease to another were almost independent of the major patient variables (sex, age). This was in stark contrast to the probabilities of progressing from one stage to another, which showed a strong dependence on age and sex. Data also showed that the length of hospital and ICU stays were almost independent of sex and age. The only factor that affected this length was the eventual outcome of the disease (survival or death); the time was significantly longer for surviving patients.
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