Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33523891›Full record

ArticleScience advances2021

How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere?

Katharyn A Duffy, Christopher R Schwalm, Vickery L Arcus, George W Koch, Liyin L Liang, Louis A Schipper

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
40citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

40 citing papers in PubMed.

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  9. Net Ecosystem COGlobal change biology · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Katharyn A DuffySchool of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA. katharyn.duffy@nau.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-6108-7718
Christopher R SchwalmCenter for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5035-5681
Vickery L ArcusSchool of Science, University of Waikato, Hamilton 3216, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0001-5082-2414
George W KochCenter for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9429-8578
Liyin L LiangSchool of Science, University of Waikato, Hamilton 3216, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0001-9831-4793
Louis A SchipperSchool of Science, University of Waikato, Hamilton 3216, New Zealand.ORCID 0000-0001-9899-1276

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The temperature dependence of global photosynthesis and respiration determine land carbon sink strength. While the land sink currently mitigates ~30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions, it is unclear whether this ecosystem service will persist and, more specifically, what hard temperature limits, if any, regulate carbon uptake. Here, we use the largest continuous carbon flux monitoring network to construct the first observationally derived temperature response curves for global land carbon uptake. We show that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (3-month period) passed the thermal maximum for photosynthesis during the past decade. At higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis. Under business-as-usual emissions, this divergence elicits a near halving of the land sink strength by as early as 2040.

Identifiers

PMID33523891
PMCPMC7806211

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.