15-lncRNA-Based Classifier-Clinicopathologic Nomogram Improves the Prediction of Recurrence in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

backgroundOur study aims to develop a lncRNA-based classifier and a nomogram incorporating the genomic signature and clinicopathologic factors to help to improve the accuracy of recurrence prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

methodsThe lncRNA profiling data of 374 HCC patients and 50 normal healthy controls were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Using univariable Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis, we developed a 15-lncRNA-based classifier and compared our classifier to the existing six-lncRNA signature. Besides, a nomogram incorporating the genomic classifier and clinicopathologic factors was also developed. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the genomic-clinicopathologic nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and were compared with the TNM staging system by the C-index and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to estimate the clinical value of our nomogram.

resultsFifteen relapse-free survival (RFS-) related lncRNAs were identified, and the classifier, consisting of the identified 15 lncRNAs, could effectively classify patients into the high-risk and low-risk subgroups. The prediction accuracy of the 15-lncRNA-based classifier for predicting 2-year and 5-year RFS was 0.791 and 0.834 in the training set and 0.684 and 0.747 in the validation set, respectively, which was better than the existing six-lncRNA signature. Moreover, the AUC of genomic-clinicopathologic nomogram in predicting RFS were 0.837 in the training set and 0.753 in the validation set, and the C-index of the genomic-clinicopathologic nomogram was 0.78 (0.72-0.83) in the training set and 0.71 (0.65-0.76) in the validation set, which was better than the traditional TNM stage and 15-lncRNA-based classifier. The decision curve analysis further demonstrated that our nomogram had a larger net benefit than the TNM stage and 15-lncRNA-based classifier. The results were confirmed externally.

conclusionCompared to the TNM stage, the 15-lncRNAs-based classifier-clinicopathologic nomogram is a more effective and valuable tool to identify HCC recurrence and may aid in clinical decision-making.