ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2021
A fractional-order SIRD model with time-dependent memory indexes for encompassing the multi-fractional characteristics of the COVID-19.
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24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A Comprehensive Review of Artificial Intelligence in Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 Pandemic.Frontiers in genetics · 2022Pooled it
- Article
- Scale-free dynamics of COVID-19 in a Brazilian city.Applied mathematical modelling · 2023Article
- Stability analysis and optimal control of a fractional-order generalized SEIR model for the COVID-19 pandemic.Applied mathematics and computation · 2023Article
- Dynamics of a fractional order mathematical model for COVID-19 epidemic transmission.Physica A · 2023Article
- Toward an efficient approximate analytical solution for 4-compartment COVID-19 fractional mathematical model.Journal of computational and applied mathematics · 2022Article
- Coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic prediction in Shanghai under the "dynamic zero-COVID policy" using time-dependent SEAIQR model.Journal of biosafety and biosecurity · 2022Article
- The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Estimating data-driven coronavirus disease 2019 mitigation strategies for safe university reopening.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Long-term predictions of current confirmed and dead cases of COVID-19 in China by the non-autonomous delayed epidemic models.Cognitive neurodynamics · 2022Article
- A new mathematical model of multi-faced COVID-19 formulated by fractional derivative chains.Advances in continuous and discrete models · 2022Article
- Chaotic dynamics in a novel COVID-19 pandemic model described by commensurate and incommensurate fractional-order derivatives.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Review
- Effect of an antiviral drug control and its variable order fractional network in host COVID-19 kinetics.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- Impact of information intervention on stochastic hepatitis B model and its variable-order fractional network.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- A mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 in variable-order fractional derivative.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- Modeling the impact of the vaccine on the COVID-19 epidemic transmission via fractional derivative.European physical journal plus · 2022Article
- Article
- Fractional-order rumor propagation model with memory effect.Social network analysis and mining · 2022Article
- On study of fractional order epidemic model of COVID-19 under non-singular Mittag-Leffler kernel.Results in physics · 2021Article
- Using Unstated Cases to Correct for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak and Its Impact on Easing the Intervention for Qatar.Biology · 2021Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus affecting all the world since December last year. Up to date, the spread of the outbreak continues to complicate our lives, and therefore, several research efforts from many scientific areas are proposed. Among them, mathematical models are an excellent way to understand and predict the epidemic outbreaks evolution to some extent. Due to the COVID-19 may be modeled as a non-Markovian process that follows power-law scaling features, we present a fractional-order SIRD (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead) model based on the Caputo derivative for incorporating the memory effects (long and short) in the outbreak progress. Additionally, we analyze the experimental time series of 23 countries using fractal formalism. Like previous works, we identify that the COVID-19 evolution shows various power-law exponents (no just a single one) and share some universality among geographical regions. Hence, we incorporate numerous memory indexes in the proposed model, i.e., distinct fractional-orders defined by a time-dependent function that permits us to set specific memory contributions during the evolution. This allows controlling the memory effects of more early states, e.g., before and after a quarantine decree, which could be less relevant than the contribution of more recent ones on the current state of the SIRD system. We also prove our model with Italy's real data from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.
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