Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33516338›Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2021

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

Xiang Li, Christinah Mukandavire, Zulma M Cucunubá, Susy Echeverria Londono, Kaja Abbas, Hannah E Clapham, Mark Jit, Hope L Johnson, Timos Papadopoulos, Emilia Vynnycky and 39 more

Erratum issuedOpen access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 162 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
162citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
27.0field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

162 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 291 citations in OpenAlex.

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102 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

49 authors at 17 institutions in 9 countries.

Xiang LiMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Christinah MukandavireMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Zulma M CucunubáMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Susy Echeverria LondonoMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Kaja AbbasLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Hannah E ClaphamSaw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford, UK.
Mark JitLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Public Health England, London, UK.
Hope L JohnsonGavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Geneva, Switzerland.
Timos PapadopoulosPublic Health England, London, UK; University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Emilia VynnyckyLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Public Health England, London, UK.
Marc BrissonLaval University, Quebec, QC, Canada.
Emily D CarterDepartment of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Andrew ClarkLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Margaret J de VilliersMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Kirsten EilertsonColorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Matthew J FerrariPennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania, PA, USA.
Ivane GamkrelidzeCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Katy A M GaythorpeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Nicholas C GrasslyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Timothy B HallettMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Wes HinsleyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Michael L JacksonKaiser Permanente Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Kévin JeanMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Laboratoire MESuRS, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France; Unité PACRI, Institut Pasteur, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Paris, France.
Andromachi KarachaliouUniversity of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Petra KlepacLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Justin LesslerDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Xi LiAtlanta, GA, USA.
Sean M MooreDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Shevanthi NayagamMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Section of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Department of Metabolism, Digestion and Reproduction, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Duy Manh NguyenOxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; School of Computing, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland.
Homie RazaviCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Devin Razavi-ShearerCenter for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, CO, USA.
Stephen ReschCenter for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Colin SandersonLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Steven SweetCenter for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Stephen SyCenter for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Yvonne TamDepartment of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Hira TanvirLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Quan Minh TranOxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Caroline L TrotterUniversity of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Shaun TrueloveDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Kevin van ZandvoortLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Stéphane VerguetDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Neff WalkerDepartment of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Amy WinterDepartment of Epidemiology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Kim WoodruffMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Neil M FergusonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. Electronic address: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk.
Tini GarskeMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium
Imperial College London · GBLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBJohns Hopkins University · USHarvard University · USCenter for Disease Analysis · USUniversity of Cambridge · GBColorado State University · USDublin City University · IEGavi · CHKaiser Permanente · USNational University Health System · SGOxford University Clinical Research Unit · VNPennsylvania State University · USPublic Health England · GBUniversité Laval · CAUniversity of Notre Dame · USUniversity of Southampton · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Medical Research Council MR/R024855/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030.

methods16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort.

findingsWe estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort.

interpretationIncreases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained.

fundingGavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Indexed as

Communicable Disease ControlModels, TheoreticalQuality-Adjusted Life YearsVaccinationChild, PreschoolCommunicable DiseasesCost-Benefit AnalysisDeveloping CountriesFemaleGlobal HealthHumansImmunization ProgramsMaleMortality

Identifiers

PMID33516338
PMCPMC7846814
OpenAlexW3123481858

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.