Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33515252›Full record

ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2021

The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States.

Seyed M Moghadas, Thomas N Vilches, Kevin Zhang, Chad R Wells, Affan Shoukat, Burton H Singer, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Kathleen M Neuzil, Joanne M Langley, Meagan C Fitzpatrick and 1 more

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Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 335 papers, 8 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
335citing papers in PubMed, 8 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

335 citing papers in PubMed, 8 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  15. Advances in Ozone-Based Inactivation of SARS-CoV-2: An Updated Review.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026
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275 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Seyed M MoghadasAgent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-4414-0227
Thomas N VilchesInstitute of Mathematics, Statistics and Scientific Computing, University of Campinas, Campinas SP, Brazil.
Kevin ZhangFaculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Chad R WellsCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Affan ShoukatCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Burton H SingerEmerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
Lauren Ancel MeyersDepartment of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA.
Kathleen M NeuzilCenter for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Joanne M LangleyCanadian Center for Vaccinology, Dalhousie University, IWK Health Centre and Nova Scotia Health Authority, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
Meagan C FitzpatrickCenter for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Alison P GalvaniCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis (CIDMA), Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.

Funding

Accelerating viral outbreak detection in US cities using mechanistic models, machine learning and diverse geospatial dataR01AI151176 · NIAID · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI GALVANI, ALISON P, MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2020 to 2024
$3.9M
RFA-IP-22-004, Modeling toolkit to evaluate multifaceted control strategies for seasonal and pandemic influenzaU01IP001136 · IP · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN · PI MEYERS, LAUREN ANCEL · 2020 to 2024
$3.4M
Mathematical modeling to optimize rotavirus vaccination in sub-Saharan AfricaK01AI141576 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND BALTIMORE · PI FITZPATRICK, MEAGAN COLLEEN · 2019 to 2023
$649k
CIHR OV4 - 170643National Science Foundation RAPID 2027755NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP001136NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI141576NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI151176NIH HHS 1RO1AI151176-01São Paulo Research Foundation 18/24811-1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGlobal vaccine development efforts have been accelerated in response to the devastating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We evaluated the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign on reducing incidence, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States.

methodsWe developed an agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and parameterized it with US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes. Healthcare workers and high-risk individuals were prioritized for vaccination, whereas children under 18 years of age were not vaccinated. We considered a vaccine efficacy of 95% against disease following 2 doses administered 21 days apart achieving 40% vaccine coverage of the overall population within 284 days. We varied vaccine efficacy against infection and specified 10% preexisting population immunity for the base-case scenario. The model was calibrated to an effective reproduction number of 1.2, accounting for current nonpharmaceutical interventions in the United States.

resultsVaccination reduced the overall attack rate to 4.6% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.3%-5.0%) from 9.0% (95% CrI: 8.4%-9.4%) without vaccination, over 300 days. The highest relative reduction (54%-62%) was observed among individuals aged 65 and older. Vaccination markedly reduced adverse outcomes, with non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, ICU hospitalizations, and deaths decreasing by 63.5% (95% CrI: 60.3%-66.7%), 65.6% (95% CrI: 62.2%-68.6%), and 69.3% (95% CrI: 65.5%-73.1%), respectively, across the same period.

conclusionsOur results indicate that vaccination can have a substantial impact on mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks, even with limited protection against infection. However, continued compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions is essential to achieve this impact.

Indexed as

COVID-19AdolescentChildCOVID-19 VaccinesDisease OutbreaksHumansSARS-CoV-2United StatesVaccinationVaccine DevelopmentVaccine EfficacyCOVID-19 VaccinesCOVID-19outbreak simulationpandemicUnited Statesvaccines

Identifiers

PMID33515252
PMCPMC7929033

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.