ArticlePloS one2021
Effect of timing of implementation of containment measures on Covid-19 epidemic. The case of the first wave in Italy.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2021Pooled it
- Intimate partner violence during lockdown in Tuscany, Italy: Economic or confinement-related shocks?PloS one · 2026Article
- Clinical presentation and effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy in newly diagnosed people living with HIV before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- The spatiotemporal dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe: time-series clustering maps 5 distinct trajectories to spatial patterns.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Identification of methodological issues regarding direct impact indicators of COVID-19: a rapid scoping review on morbidity, severity and mortality.European journal of public health · 2024Article
- Article
- The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Need for an Integrated and Equitable Approach: An International Expert Consensus Paper.Thrombosis and haemostasis · 2021Article
- Unpredictable, Counter-Intuitive Geoclimatic and Demographic Correlations of COVID-19 Spread Rates.Biology · 2021Article
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Abstract
There is evidence that adoption of non-pharmaceutical containment measures (NPMs) may have had a major impact on Covid-19 epidemic dynamics, and mitigated its effect on healthcare system. Optimal timing of implementation of these measures however is not known. In Italy, a national lockdown was decided on March 11th 2020 and ended 4th of May. At that time, cumulative incidence (CI) was different in Italian regions which ranged from <5 cases/100,000 to >11 cases/100,000 inhabitants. In this paper, we aim to evaluate how level of incidence in different regions at the time of implementation of NPMs affected CI and had an impact on the healthcare system in terms of ICU bed occupancy and mortality rates. We used regional daily new COVID-19 diagnosed cases as well number of people hospitalized in ICU and number of deaths for period February 24-May 11 from all the 19 Italian regions and two autonomous provinces. For each region we calculated: temporal daily trend of cumulative cases of Covid-19/100,000 inhabitants, daily trend of ICU bed occupancy and mortality rate at the end of period. We found that the epidemic curves show similar trends for all regions and all tend to flatten between 11-32 days. However, after 2 months, regions with lower CI at lockdown remained at substantially lower CI (<265 cases/100,000), had a peak of percentage of cases hospitalized in ICU which did not exceed 79.4% and a mortality<0.27/1,000. On the other hand, in regions with higher incidence at lockdown, CI reached 382-921 cases/100,000, the peak of percentage of cases hospitalized in ICU and mortality rate reached 270%, and 1.5/1,000, respectively. Our data suggests that level of CI at the moment of lockdown is important to control the subsequent spread of infection so NPMs should be adopted very early during the course of Covid-19 epidemic, in order to mitigate the impact on the healthcare system and to reduce related mortality.
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