Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33513003›Full record

ArticleChemical research in toxicology2021

Trade-off Predictivity and Explainability for Machine-Learning Powered Predictive Toxicology: An in-Depth Investigation with Tox21 Data Sets.

Leihong Wu, Ruili Huang, Igor V Tetko, Zhonghua Xia, Joshua Xu, Weida Tong

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Chemical research in toxicology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  7. Beyond QSARs: Quantitative Knowledge-Activity Relationships (QKARs) for enhanced drug toxicity prediction.Toxicological sciences : an official journal of the Society of Toxicology · 2025
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  12. VenomPred 2.0: A NovelJournal of chemical information and modeling · 2024
    Article
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  14. PERform: assessing model performance with predictivity and explainability readiness formula.Journal of environmental science and health. Part C, Toxicology and carcinogenesis · 2024
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Prediction of Drug Targets based on In Vitro Activity Profiles Toward Drug Repurposing for Rare Diseases.IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine workshops. IEEE International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedicine · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Leihong WuDivision of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, National Center for Toxicological Research, FDA, 3900 NCTR Road, Jefferson, Arkansas 72079, United States.
Ruili HuangDivision of Preclinical Innovation, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, 9800 Medical Center Drive, Rockville, Maryland 20850, United States.
Igor V TetkoInstitute of Structural Biology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, 85764 Neuherberg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-6855-0012
Zhonghua XiaInstitute of Structural Biology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, 85764 Neuherberg, Germany.
Joshua XuDivision of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, National Center for Toxicological Research, FDA, 3900 NCTR Road, Jefferson, Arkansas 72079, United States.
Weida TongDivision of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, National Center for Toxicological Research, FDA, 3900 NCTR Road, Jefferson, Arkansas 72079, United States.ORCID 0000-0002-4093-3708

Funding

Toxicology in the 21st Century Program (Tox21) - Computational ToxicologyZIATR000040 · NCATS · NATIONAL CENTER FOR ADVANCING TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCES · PI HUANG, RUILI · 2016 to 2025
$3.5M
Intramural NIH HHS Z99 TR999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Selecting a model in predictive toxicology often involves a trade-off between prediction performance and explainability: should we sacrifice the model performance to gain explainability or vice versa. Here we present a comprehensive study to assess algorithm and feature influences on model performance in chemical toxicity research. We conducted over 5000 models for a Tox21 bioassay data set of 65 assays and ∼7600 compounds. Seven molecular representations as features and 12 modeling approaches varying in complexity and explainability were employed to systematically investigate the impact of various factors on model performance and explainability. We demonstrated that end points dictated a model's performance, regardless of the chosen modeling approach including deep learning and chemical features. Overall, more complex models such as (LS-)SVM and Random Forest performed marginally better than simpler models such as linear regression and KNN in the presented Tox21 data analysis. Since a simpler model with acceptable performance often also is easy to interpret for the Tox21 data set, it clearly was the preferred choice due to its better explainability. Given that each data set had its own error structure both for dependent and independent variables, we strongly recommend that it is important to conduct a systematic study with a broad range of model complexity and feature explainability to identify model balancing its predictivity and explainability.

Indexed as

Chemical and Drug Induced Liver InjuryMachine LearningDatabases, FactualHumansModels, MolecularPharmaceutical PreparationsQuantitative Structure-Activity RelationshipPharmaceutical Preparations

Identifiers

PMID33513003
PMCPMC8867471

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.