ArticleScientific reports2021
The effect of the definition of 'pandemic' on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Towards a Comprehensive Definition of Pandemics and Strategies for Prevention: A Historical Review and Future Perspectives.Microorganisms · 2024Review
- The incidence of psychosocial disturbances during the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic in an Iranian sample.Current psychology (New Brunswick, N.J.) · 2023Article
- Narrative Review of the COVID-19 Pandemic's First Two Years in Italy.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- Retracted: 'We were on our knees long before COVID': How healthcare workers experienced the compassionate care model during COVID-19.Counselling and psychotherapy research · 2022Article
- Prevalence of Behavioral and Psychological Symptoms in Patients With Cognitive Decline Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2022Article
- Tracing and analyzing COVID-19 dissemination using knowledge graphs.Procedia computer science · 2022Article
- A stochastic contact network model for assessing outbreak risk of COVID-19 in workplaces.PloS one · 2022Article
- Disinfection of Respirators with Ultraviolet Radiation.Journal of research of the National Institute of Standards and Technology · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In the early stages of an outbreak, the term 'pandemic' can be used to communicate about infectious disease risk, particularly by those who wish to encourage a large-scale public health response. However, the term lacks a widely accepted quantitative definition. We show that, under alternate quantitative definitions of 'pandemic', an epidemiological metapopulation model produces different estimates of the probability of a pandemic. Critically, we show that using different definitions alters the projected effects of key parameters-such as inter-regional travel rates, degree of pre-existing immunity, and heterogeneity in transmission rates between regions-on the risk of a pandemic. Our analysis provides a foundation for understanding the scientific importance of precise language when discussing pandemic risk, illustrating how alternative definitions affect the conclusions of modelling studies. This serves to highlight that those working on pandemic preparedness must remain alert to the variability in the use of the term 'pandemic', and provide specific quantitative definitions when undertaking one of the types of analysis that we show to be sensitive to the pandemic definition.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.