Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33509272›Full record

ArticleGenome medicine2021

Highly elevated polygenic risk scores are better predictors of myocardial infarction risk early in life than later.

Monica Isgut, Jimeng Sun, Arshed A Quyyumi, Greg Gibson

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Genome medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed
15.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 58 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Monica IsgutSchool of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 950 Atlantic Drive, EBB1 Suite 2115, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA.
Jimeng SunDepartment of Computer Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, USA.
Arshed A QuyyumiDepartment of Medicine, Emory Clinical Cardiovascular Research Institute, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, USA.
Greg GibsonSchool of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 950 Atlantic Drive, EBB1 Suite 2115, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA. greg.gibson@biology.gatech.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-5352-5877
Georgia Institute of Technology · USEmory University · USUniversity of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · US

Funding

Interpretable Deep Learning Model for Longitudinal Electronic Health Records and Applications to Heart Failure PredictionR56HL138415 · NHLBI · GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY · PI ZHANG, CHAO · 2017 to 2017
$756k
NHLBI NIH HHS R56 HL138415
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSeveral polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been developed for cardiovascular risk prediction, but the additive value of including PRS together with conventional risk factors for risk prediction is questionable. This study assesses the clinical utility of including four PRS generated from 194, 46K, 1.5M, and 6M SNPs, along with conventional risk factors, to predict risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), myocardial infarction (MI), and first MI event on or before age 50 (early MI).

methodsA cross-validated logistic regression (LR) algorithm was trained either on ~ 440K European ancestry individuals from the UK Biobank (UKB), or the full UKB population, including as features different combinations of conventional established-at-birth risk factors (ancestry, sex) and risk factors that are non-fixed over an individual's lifespan (age, BMI, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, smoking, family history), with and without also including PRS. The algorithm was trained separately with IHD, MI, and early MI as prediction labels.

resultsWhen LR was trained using risk factors established-at-birth, adding the four PRS significantly improved the area under the curve (AUC) for IHD (0.62 to 0.67) and MI (0.67 to 0.73), as well as for early MI (0.70 to 0.79). When LR was trained using all risk factors, adding the four PRS only resulted in a significantly higher disease prevalence in the 98th and 99th percentiles of both the IHD and MI scores.

conclusionsPRS improve cardiovascular risk stratification early in life when knowledge of later-life risk factors is unavailable. However, by middle age, when many risk factors are known, the improvement attributed to PRS is marginal for the general population.

Indexed as

Genetic Predisposition to DiseaseAge FactorsHumansLogistic ModelsMultifactorial InheritanceMultivariate AnalysisMyocardial InfarctionPropensity ScoreReproducibility of ResultsRisk FactorsROC CurveCoronary artery diseaseIschemic heart diseaseMyocardial infarctionPolygenic risk scoresRisk assessment

Identifiers

PMID33509272
PMCPMC7845089
OpenAlexW3121264076

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.