ArticleBiology2021
Evaluating the Impact of Intervention Strategies on the First Wave and Predicting the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Thailand: A Mathematical Modeling Study.
Article in Biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- COVID-19 in Italy: Is the Mortality Analysis a Way to Estimate How the Epidemic Lasts?Biology · 2023Article
- Non-Pharmacologic Interventions in COVID-19 Pandemic Management; a Systematic Review.Archives of academic emergency medicine · 2023Review
- Modeling Dynamic Responses to COVID-19 Epidemics: A Case Study in Thailand.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Behavioral Economics in the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Theory and Simulations.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Reconstruction of the transmission dynamics of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Thailand.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding "New Normal" Guidelines and Quality of Life Among Thai People During the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Online Cross-Sectional Survey.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- How Coronavirus Disease 2019 Changed Dermatology Practice in 1 Year Around the World: Perspectives from 11 Countries.Dermatologic clinics · 2021Review
- Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Contextual factors that shape uptake of COVID-19 preventive measures by persons of Ghanaian and Eritrean origin in the Netherlands: A focus group study.Journal of migration and health · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide. This study aimed to assess and predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Thailand, including the preparation and evaluation of intervention strategies. An SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model was implemented with model parameters estimated using the Bayesian approach. The model's projections showed that the highest daily reported incidence of COVID-19 would be approximately 140 cases (95% credible interval, CrI: 83-170 cases) by the end of March 2020. After Thailand declared an emergency decree, the numbers of new cases and case fatalities decreased, with no new imported cases. According to the model's predictions, the incidence would be zero at the end of June if non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were strictly and widely implemented. These stringent NPIs reduced the effective reproductive number (Rt) to 0.73 per day (95% CrI: 0.53-0.93) during April and May. Sensitivity analysis showed that contact rate, hand washing, and face mask wearing effectiveness were the parameters that most influenced the number of reported daily new cases. Our evaluation shows that Thailand's intervention strategies have been highly effective in mitigating disease propagation. Continuing with these strict disease prevention behaviors could minimize the risk of a new COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand.
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