Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33495860›Full record

ArticleEuropean journal of epidemiology2021

Gender specific excess mortality in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic accounting for age.

Emilio A L Gianicolo, Antonello Russo, Britta Büchler, Katherine Taylor, Andreas Stang, Maria Blettner

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European journal of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.9field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 48 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
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  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Flaws and uncertainties in pandemic global excess death calculations.European journal of clinical investigation · 2023
    Review
  10. Assessment of Excess Mortality in Italy in 2020-2021 as a Function of Selected Macro-Factors.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Assessing COVID-19-Related Excess Mortality Using Multiple Approaches-Italy, 2020-2021.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Estimation of Excess All-Cause Mortality Due to COVID-19 in Thailand.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022
    Article
  16. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.

Emilio A L GianicoloInstitute for Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics (IMBEI), University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany. emilio.gianicolo@uni-mainz.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3473-0752
Antonello RussoInstitute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate of the Italian National Research Council (CNR-ISAC), Lecce, Italy.
Britta BüchlerInstitute for Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics (IMBEI), University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany.
Katherine TaylorInstitute for Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics (IMBEI), University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0768-5789
Andreas StangInstitute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, Essen, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6363-9061
Maria BlettnerInstitute for Medical Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Informatics (IMBEI), University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Mainz, Germany.
Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz · DEBoston University · USInstitute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate · IT

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, data have been accumulated to examine excess mortality in the first half of 2020. Mortality in the preceding year or years is used to calculate the expected number of deaths, which is then compared with the actual number of deaths in 2020. We calculated weekly age- and sex-specific mortality rates for 93.1% of the Italian municipalities for the years 2015-2019 and for the first 26 weeks in 2020. We assumed the mortality experience during 2015-2019 as the reference period to calculate standardised mortality ratios. Furthermore, in order to compare the mortality experience of males and females, we calculated sex- and age- specific weekly direct standardised mortality rates and differences between the observed and expected number of deaths. We observed considerable changes in the demographics in the Italian population between the years 2015 and 2020, particularly among people 60 years and older and among males. The population is aging and the proportion of elderly males has increased, which was not reflected adequately in previous estimates of excess mortality. Standardized excess mortality results show that in Italy between the 8th and 26th weeks in 2020, there were 33,035 excess deaths, which is only 643 fewer deaths than the official COVID-19 death toll for this time period. A comparative increase in the mortality rates was observed in March among both sexes, but particularly for males. Comparisons with recently published data show considerably higher excess deaths, but these data were either not covering the complete country or did not account for age and sex. Neglecting the demographic changes in a region, even over a short time span, can result in biased estimates.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionChildChild, PreschoolCOVID-19FemaleHumansInfantItalyMaleMiddle AgedPandemicsSARS-CoV-2COVID-19Italy, age standardisationMortalitySex differences

Identifiers

PMID33495860
PMCPMC7832414
OpenAlexW3124638045

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.