ArticleAdvances in difference equations2021
Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe.
Article in Advances in difference equations, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.Epidemics · 2022Pooled it
- Statistical methods for the computation and parameter estimation of a fractional SIRC model with Salmonella infection.Heliyon · 2024Article
- [Formula: see text] model for analyzing [Formula: see text]-19 pandemic process via [Formula: see text]-Caputo fractional derivative and numerical simulation.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 intervention policies using a mathematical model: an optimal control approach.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A cyclic behavioral modeling aspect to understand the effects of vaccination and treatment on epidemic transmission dynamics.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Coupled simultaneous analysis of vaccine and self-awareness strategies on evolutionary dilemma aspect with various immunity.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Article
- A case study of 2019-nCoV in Russia using integer and fractional order derivatives.Mathematical methods in the applied sciences · 2022Article
- A vaccination model for COVID-19 in Gauteng, South Africa.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Comparative study of artificial neural network versus parametric method in COVID-19 data analysis.Results in physics · 2022Article
- A global report on the dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantine and hospitalization: A fractional order model with non-local kernel.Computational biology and chemistry · 2022Article
- A fractional-order mathematical model for analyzing the pandemic trend of COVID-19.Mathematical methods in the applied sciences · 2022Article
- Mathematical modelling of earlier stages of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Ghana.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Investigating the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Nigeria: A SEIR modelling approach.Scientific African · 2022Article
- Modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 using fractal-fractional operator with a case study.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases by HAR models with growth rates and vaccination rates in top eight affected countries: Bootstrap improvement.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19.Results in physics · 2022Article
- A delayed plant disease model with Caputo fractional derivatives.Advances in continuous and discrete models · 2022Article
- Mathematical Analysis of Two Waves of COVID-19 Disease with Impact of Vaccination as Optimal Control.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
- A new mathematical model of multi-faced COVID-19 formulated by fractional derivative chains.Advances in continuous and discrete models · 2022Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Using the existing collected data from European and African countries, we present a statistical analysis of forecast of the future number of daily deaths and infections up to 10 September 2020. We presented numerous statistical analyses of collected data from both continents using numerous existing statistical theories. Our predictions show the possibility of the second wave of spread in Europe in the worse scenario and an exponential growth in the number of infections in Africa. The projection of statistical analysis leads us to introducing an extended version of the well-blancmange function to further capture the spread with fractal properties. A mathematical model depicting the spread with nine sub-classes is considered, first converted to a stochastic system, where the existence and uniqueness are presented. Then the model is extended to the concept of nonlocal operators; due to nonlinearity, a modified numerical scheme is suggested and used to present numerical simulations. The suggested mathematical model is able to predict two to three waves of the spread in the near future.
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