ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2021
COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution.
Article in Chaos, solitons, and fractals, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Quantitative analysis of social influence and digital piracy contagion with differential equations on networks.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Revisiting and redefining return rate for determination of the precise growth status of a species.Journal of biological physics · 2023Article
- A noble extended stochastic logistic model for cell proliferation with density-dependent parameters.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- COVID-19 pandemic decision support system for a population defense strategy and vaccination effectiveness.Safety science · 2021Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
We have put an effort to estimate the number of publications related to the modelling aspect of the corona pandemic through the web search with the corona associated keywords. The survey reveals that plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution. Most of the future predictions based on these epidemiological models are highly unreliable because of the complexity of the dynamical equations and the poor knowledge of realistic values of the model parameters. The incidence time series of top ten corona infected countries are erratic and sparse. But in comparison, the incidence and disease fitness relationships are uniform and concave upward in nature. These simple profiles with the acceleration curves have fundamental implications in understanding the instinctive dynamics of the corona pandemic. We propose a simple population dynamics solution based on the incidence-fitness relationship in predicting that a plateau or steady state of SARS-CoV-2 will be reached using the basic concept of geometry.
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