Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33495348›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021

Anomalous influenza seasonality in the United States and the emergence of novel influenza B viruses.

Rebecca K Borchering, Christian E Gunning, Deven V Gokhale, K Bodie Weedop, Arash Saeidpour, Tobias S Brett, Pejman Rohani

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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  20. Disentangling the causes of mumps reemergence in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Rebecca K BorcheringOdum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602; rebecca.borchering@gmail.com.ORCID 0000-0003-4309-2913
Christian E GunningOdum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602.ORCID 0000-0001-6403-6553
Deven V GokhaleOdum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602.
K Bodie WeedopInstitute of Bioinformatics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602.ORCID 0000-0002-5310-3965
Arash SaeidpourOdum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602.ORCID 0000-0001-9585-4524
Tobias S BrettOdum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602.ORCID 0000-0002-0906-441X
Pejman RohaniOdum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602.ORCID 0000-0002-7221-3801

Funding

Vaccine hesitancy and erosion of herd immunity: harnessing big data to forecast disease re-emergenceR01GM123007 · NIGMS · GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY · PI BANSAL, SHWETA · 2017 to 2021
$2.1M
NIGMS NIH HHS R01 GM123007
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The 2019/2020 influenza season in the United States began earlier than any season since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, with an increase in influenza-like illnesses observed as early as August. Also noteworthy was the numerical domination of influenza B cases early in this influenza season, in contrast to their typically later peak in the past. Here, we dissect the 2019/2020 influenza season not only with regard to its unusually early activity, but also with regard to the relative dynamics of type A and type B cases. We propose that the recent expansion of a novel influenza B/Victoria clade may be associated with this shift in the composition and kinetics of the influenza season in the United States. We use epidemiological transmission models to explore whether changes in the effective reproduction number or short-term cross-immunity between these viruses can explain the dynamics of influenza A and B seasonality. We find support for an increase in the effective reproduction number of influenza B, rather than support for cross-type immunity-driven dynamics. Our findings have clear implications for optimal vaccination strategies.

Indexed as

SeasonsComputer SimulationHumansInfluenza A virusInfluenza B virusInfluenza, HumanPhylogenyTime FactorsUnited Statesepidemiological modelsgenetic diversityinfluenzastatistical inferenceviral interference

Identifiers

PMID33495348
PMCPMC7865157

What OpenQuestion holds

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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.