ArticleFrontiers in oncology2020
Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China.
Article in Frontiers in oncology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Diagnostic Risk Prediction Models for Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers: A Systematic Review.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2025Pooled it
- Risk prediction models for esophageal cancer: A systematic review and critical appraisal.Cancer medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Risk Prediction Model for Esophageal Cancer Among General Population: A Systematic Review.Frontiers in public health · 2021Pooled it
- The Clinical Value of hsa_circ_0000419 in Diagnosis and Prognosis of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.Biochemical genetics · 2026Article
- A model for projecting individuals' risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in a high-risk Chinese population.Gastroenterology report · 2026Article
- Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting the risk of developing esophageal cancer based on a questionnaire: a multicenter case-control study.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Article
- Integration of IDPC Clustering Analysis and Interpretable Machine Learning for Survival Risk Prediction of Patients with ESCC.Interdisciplinary sciences, computational life sciences · 2023Article
- Electronic Health Record-Based Absolute Risk Prediction Model for Esophageal Cancer in the Chinese Population: Model Development and External Validation.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Review
- Development and Validation of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Risk Prediction Models Based on an Endoscopic Screening Program.JAMA network open · 2023Article
- TAB182 aggravates progression of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma by enhancing β-catenin nuclear translocation through FHL2 dependent manner.Cell death & disease · 2022Article
- Genomic analyses reveal SCN7A is associated with the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.Esophagus : official journal of the Japan Esophageal Society · 2022Article
- Risk factors for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Mozambique.Ecancermedicalscience · 2022Article
- Heart failure and cancer: From active exposure to passive adaption.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2022Review
- Trends in cancer mortality in China from 2004 to 2018: A nationwide longitudinal study.Cancer communications (London, England) · 2021Article
- Improved esophageal squamous cell carcinoma screening effectiveness by risk-stratified endoscopic screening: evidence from high-risk areas in China.Cancer communications (London, England) · 2021Article
- Targeting the Microenvironment in Esophageal Cancer.Frontiers in cell and developmental biology · 2021Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundEsophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China.
methodsWe developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years.
resultsA relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749-0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors.
conclusionsOur model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.
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