Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33487397›Full record

ArticleISA transactions2022

Data-driven modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 outbreak for public policy making.

A Hasan, E R M Putri, H Susanto, N Nuraini

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in ISA transactions, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
19citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
3.0field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

19 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  10. Deep Spatiotemporal Model for COVID-19 Forecasting.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022
    Article
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  15. Rigorous Policy-Making Amid COVID-19 and Beyond: Literature Review and Critical Insights.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.

A HasanMærsk McKinney Møller Institute, University of Southern Denmark, Denmark. Electronic address: agha@mmmi.sdu.dk.
E R M PutriDepartment of Mathematics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Indonesia.
H SusantoDepartment of Mathematics, Khalifa University, United Arab Emirates; Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Essex, United Kingdom.
N NurainiDepartment of Mathematics, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia.
Bandung Institute of Technology · IDSepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology · IDUniversity of Essex · GBUniversity of Southern Denmark · DK

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This paper presents a data-driven approach for COVID-19 modeling and forecasting, which can be used by public policy and decision makers to control the outbreak through Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI). First, we apply an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to a discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental model to estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number (R

Indexed as

COVID-19Communicable Disease ControlDisease OutbreaksForecastingHumansPolicy MakingSARS-CoV-2COVID-19ForecastingModelingPublic policy

Identifiers

PMID33487397
PMCPMC7816594
OpenAlexW3124061869

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.