ArticlePloS one2021
Effects of short-term travel on COVID-19 spread: A novel SEIR model and case study in Minnesota.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Graph neural network surrogates to leverage mechanistic expert knowledge towards reliable and immediate pandemic response.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Novel travel time aware metapopulation models and multi-layer waning immunity for late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Spatial Interaction Analysis of Infectious Disease Import and Export between Regions.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on emergency medical services utilization and severity in the U.S. Upper Midwest.PloS one · 2024Article
- Modelling the reopen strategy from dynamic zero-COVID in China considering the sequela and reinfection.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Observational
- Impact of network centrality and income on slowing infection spread after outbreaks.Applied network science · 2023Article
- COVIDNearTerm: A simple method to forecast COVID-19 hospitalizations.Journal of clinical and translational science · 2022Article
- Predicting regional COVID-19 hospital admissions in Sweden using mobility data.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Infection preventionists' experiences during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic: Findings from focus groups conducted with Association of Professionals in Infection Control & Epidemiology (APIC) members.American journal of infection control · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 was first identified in Hubei Province, China in December, 2019. Within a matter of months the virus had spread and become a global pandemic. In addition to international air travel, local travel (e.g. by passenger car) contributes to the geographic spread of COVID-19. We modify the common susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) virus spread model and investigate the extent to which short-term travel associated with driving influences the spread of the virus. We consider the case study of the US state of Minnesota, and calibrated the proposed model with travel and viral spread data. Using our modified SEIR model that considers local short-term travel, we are able to better explain the virus spread than using the long-term travel SEIR model. Short-term travel associated with driving is predicted to be a significant contributor to the historical and future spread of COVID-19. The calibrated model also predicts the proportion of infections that were detected. We find that if driving trips remain at current levels, a substantial increase in COVID-19 cases may be observed in Minnesota, while decreasing intrastate travel could help contain the virus spread.
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