ArticlePloS one2021
Forecasting hospital demand in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 pandemic and estimates of lockdown-induced 2nd waves.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
- Multiscale Modeling of Hospital Length of Stay for Successive SARS-CoV-2 Variants: A Multi-State Forecasting Framework.Viruses · 2025Article
- Comparison between simulated scenarios and Swedish COVID-19 cases throughout the pandemic.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Bayesian sequential approach to monitor COVID-19 variants through test positivity rate from wastewater.mSystems · 2023Article
- Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic using a compartmental model with time-varying parameters fitted by a genetic algorithm.Expert systems with applications · 2023Article
- Inference on a Multi-Patch Epidemic Model with Partial Mobility, Residency, and Demography: Case of the 2020 COVID-19 Outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Bayesian sequential approach to monitor COVID-19 variants through positivity rate from wastewater.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Article
- Evaluations of COVID-19 epidemic models with multiple susceptible compartments using exponential and non-exponential distribution for disease stages.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Filtering and improved Uncertainty Quantification in the dynamic estimation of effective reproduction numbers.Epidemics · 2022Article
- COVID-19 ICU demand forecasting: A two-stage Prophet-LSTM approach.Applied soft computing · 2022Article
- Associations between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Hospital Infrastructure Adaptation and Planning-A Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Bayesian sequential data assimilation for COVID-19 forecasting.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Information and behavioral responses during a pandemic: Evidence from delays in Covid-19 death reports.Journal of development economics · 2022Article
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- Article
- A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data.PloS one · 2022Article
- Management of hospital beds and ventilators in the Gauteng province, South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- COVID-19 optimal vaccination policies: A modeling study on efficacy, natural and vaccine-induced immunity responses.Mathematical biosciences · 2021Article
- Review of epidemic, containment strategies, clinical management, and economic evaluation of COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi · 2021Review
- Understanding the cycles of COVID-19 incidence: Principal Component Analysis and interaction of biological and socio-economic factors.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We present a forecasting model aim to predict hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Our SEIRD type model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model explicitly branching probabilities and non-exponential residence times in each latent and infected compartments. Using both hospital admittance confirmed cases and deaths, we infer the contact rate and the initial conditions of the dynamical system, considering breakpoints to model lockdown interventions and the increase in effective population size due to lockdown relaxation. The latter features let us model lockdown-induced 2nd waves. Our Bayesian approach allows us to produce timely probabilistic forecasts of hospital demand. We have applied the model to analyze more than 70 metropolitan areas and 32 states in Mexico.
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