ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2021
Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 57 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2021Pooled it
- Cross-sectional hospital-based investigation on clinical characteristics of pediatric Group A Streptococcus isolates in a Beijing hospital from 2014 to 2023.Annals of clinical microbiology and antimicrobials · 2026Article
- Modeling and Characterizing the Growth of the Texas-New Mexico Measles Outbreak of 2025.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Mathematical models to characterize the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Mexico, USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2025Article
- Bodily Practices and Meanings Articulated in the Physical Exercise of Older Adults in Santiago de Chile Post-COVID-19.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Cross-sectional Hospital-based Investigation on Clinical Characteristics of PediatricInfection and drug resistance · 2024Article
- Antibiotic Consumption During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic and Emergence of Carbapenemase-Producing Klebsiella pneumoniae Lineages Among Inpatients in a Chilean Hospital: A Time-Series Study and Phylogenomic Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
- Socioeconomic disparities in the reopening of schools during the pandemic in Chile.International journal of educational development · 2023Article
- The job of public transport, ride-hailing and delivery drivers: Conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic and implications for a post-pandemic future.Travel behaviour & society · 2023Article
- Article
- Influence of online opinions and interactions on the Covid-19 vaccination in Chile.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Nonlinear time-series forecasts for decision support: short-term demand for ICU beds in Santiago, Chile, during the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic.International transactions in operational research : a journal of The International Federation of Operational Research Societies · 2022Article
- An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on osteoporotic hip fractures in Chile.Archives of osteoporosis · 2022Article
- An ensemblemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- Factors Influencing the Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccines in a Country with a High Vaccination Rate.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Infection fatality rate and infection attack rate of COVID-19 in South American countries.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020-2021.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- A review on COVID-19 transmission, epidemiological features, prevention and vaccination.Medical review (2021) · 2022Review
- Seroprevalence, spatial distribution, and social determinants of SARS-CoV-2 in three urban centers of Chile.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Since the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Chile on March 3rd, 2020, a total of 513,188 cases, including ~14,302 deaths have been reported in Chile as of November 2nd, 2020. Here, we estimate the reproduction number throughout the epidemic in Chile and study the effectiveness of control interventions especially the effectiveness of lockdowns by conducting short-term forecasts based on the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Chile's incidence curve displays early sub-exponential growth dynamics with the deceleration of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8) and the reproduction number, R, estimated at 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6, 1.9). Our findings indicate that the control measures at the start of the epidemic significantly slowed down the spread of the virus. However, the relaxation of restrictions and spread of the virus in low-income neighborhoods in May led to a new surge of infections, followed by the reimposition of lockdowns in Greater Santiago and other municipalities. These measures have decelerated the virus spread with R estimated at ~0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.98) as of November 2nd, 2020. The early sub-exponential growth trend (p ~0.8) of the COVID-19 epidemic transformed into a linear growth trend (p ~0.5) as of July 7th, 2020, after the reimposition of lockdowns. While the broad scale social distancing interventions have slowed the virus spread, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accrue, underscoring the need for persistent social distancing and active case detection and isolation efforts to maintain the epidemic under control.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.