ArticleScientific reports2021
A dynamic modelling analysis of the impact of tobacco control programs on population-level nicotine dependence.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dynamic Simulation Models of Suicide and Suicide-Related Behaviors: Systematic Review.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Pooled it
- Article
- A Dynamic Approach to Economic Priority Setting to Invest in Youth Mental Health and Guide Local Implementation: Economic Protocol for Eight System Dynamics Policy Models.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2022Article
- Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting the Mental Wealth of Nations.Frontiers in public health · 2022Review
- Which Social, Economic, and Health Sector Strategies Will Deliver the Greatest Impacts for Youth Mental Health and Suicide Prevention? Protocol for an Advanced, Systems Modelling Approach.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
According to the 'hardening hypothesis', average nicotine dependence will increase as less dependent smokers quit relatively easily in response to effective public health interventions, so that sustained progress in reducing smoking prevalence will depend on shifting the emphasis of tobacco control programs towards intensive treatment of heavily dependent smokers (who comprise an increasing fraction of continuing smokers). We used a system dynamics model of smoking behaviour to explore the potential for hardening in a population of smokers exposed to effective tobacco control measures over an extended period. Policy-induced increases in the per capita cessation rate are shown to lead inevitably to a decline in the proportion of smokers who are heavily dependent, contrary to the hardening hypothesis. Changes in smoking behaviour in Australia over the period 2001‒2016 resulted in substantial decreases in current smoking prevalence (from 23.1% in 2001 to 14.6% in 2016) and the proportion of heavily dependent smokers in the smoking population (from 52.1% to 36.9%). Public health interventions that have proved particularly effective in reducing smoking prevalence (tobacco tax increases, smoke-free environment legislation, antismoking mass media campaigns) are expected to also contribute to a decline in population-level nicotine dependence.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.