Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33475231›Full record

ArticlePharmaceutical statistics2021

Assessing efficacy in important subgroups in confirmatory trials: An example using Bayesian dynamic borrowing.

Nicky Best, Robert G Price, Isabelle J Pouliquen, Oliver N Keene

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Pharmaceutical statistics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed.

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  11. Power priors for replication studies.Test (Madrid, Spain) · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Nicky BestDepartment of Biostatistics, GlaxoSmithKline Research and Development, Brentford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4120-9727
Robert G PriceDepartment of Clinical Pharmacology Modelling & Simulation, GlaxoSmithKline Research and Development, Stevenage, Herts, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6418-6818
Isabelle J PouliquenDepartment of Biostatistics, GlaxoSmithKline Research and Development, Brentford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6460-4538
Oliver N KeeneDepartment of Biostatistics, GlaxoSmithKline Research and Development, Brentford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0016-9773

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Assessment of efficacy in important subgroups - such as those defined by sex, age, race and region - in confirmatory trials is typically performed using separate analysis of the specific subgroup. This ignores relevant information from the complementary subgroup. Bayesian dynamic borrowing uses an informative prior based on analysis of the complementary subgroup and a weak prior distribution centred on a mean of zero to construct a robust mixture prior. This combination of priors allows for dynamic borrowing of prior information; the analysis learns how much of the complementary subgroup prior information to borrow based on the consistency between the subgroup of interest and the complementary subgroup. A tipping point analysis can be carried out to identify how much prior weight needs to be placed on the complementary subgroup component of the robust mixture prior to establish efficacy in the subgroup of interest. An attractive feature of the tipping point analysis is that it enables the evidence from the source subgroup, the evidence from the target subgroup, and the combined evidence to be displayed alongside each other. This method is illustrated with an example trial in severe asthma where efficacy in the adolescent subgroup was assessed using a mixture prior combining an informative prior from the adult data in the same trial with a non-informative prior.

Indexed as

Research DesignAdolescentBayes TheoremHumansBayesianborrowingconfirmatoryexacerbationpaediatricsubgroup

Identifiers

PMID33475231
PMCPMC8247867

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.