ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2021
A primer on using mathematics to understand COVID-19 dynamics: Modeling, analysis and simulations.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 68 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
68 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Modelling the impact of behavioural interventions during pandemics: A systematic review.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- Artificial intelligence chatbots mimic human collective behaviour.British journal of psychology (London, England : 1953) · 2026Article
- A mathematical model examining the role of self-treated individuals in the geographical spread of COVID-19.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- SEIRV epidemiological model for COVID 19 with Holling type II functional response.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Modeling the effects of pandemics on physiology-related fertility decline in society.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2026Article
- Article
- Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- The Basic Reproduction Number for Petri Net Models: A Next-Generation Matrix Approach.Applied sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Utility of compartmental models to test the competing hypotheses of pathogen evolution and human intervention.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Mathematical modeling and analysis of the co-dynamics of crime and drug abuse.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A vaccination-based COVID-19 model: Analysis and prediction using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Relationship between COVID-19 Cases and Environmental Contaminants in Quito, Ecuador.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Mathematical modeling for estimating influenza vaccine efficacy: A case study of the Valencian Community, Spain.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Mathematical assessment of the roles of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Mathematical Assessment of the Role of Human Behavior Changes on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Dynamics in the United States.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2024Article
- SIR+ models: accounting for interaction-dependent disease susceptibility in the planning of public health interventions.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Analyzing evolutionary game theory in epidemic management: A study on social distancing and mask-wearing strategies.PloS one · 2024Article
- Stochastic dynamical analysis for the complex infectious disease model driven by multisource noises.PloS one · 2024Article
8 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world. It became the most important public health challenge facing mankind since the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Various theoretical and empirical approaches have been designed and used to gain insight into the transmission dynamics and control of the pandemic. This study presents a primer for formulating, analysing and simulating mathematical models for understanding the dynamics of COVID-19. Specifically, we introduce simple compartmental, Kermack-McKendrick-type epidemic models with homogeneously- and heterogeneously-mixed populations, an endemic model for assessing the potential population-level impact of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine. We illustrate how some basic non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 can be incorporated into the epidemic model. A brief overview of other kinds of models that have been used to study the dynamics of COVID-19, such as agent-based, network and statistical models, is also presented. Possible extensions of the basic model, as well as open challenges associated with the formulation and theoretical analysis of models for COVID-19 dynamics, are suggested.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.