Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33472979›Full record

ArticleTobacco control2022

The temporary ban on tobacco sales in South Africa: lessons for endgame strategies.

Samantha Filby, Kirsten van der Zee, Corné van Walbeek

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Tobacco control, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
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  6. Article
  7. Guidance for Introducing the Tobacco-Free Generation Policy.The International journal of health planning and management · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. A Media Analysis of the COVID-19 Tobacco Sales Ban in South Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
  11. E-cigarette Price Impacts legal and Black-Market Cigarette Purchasing Under a Hypothetical Reduced-Nicotine Cigarette Standard.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2023
    Article
  12. When Cigarette Sales Suddenly Become Illegal: Evidence From an Online Survey of South African Smokers During COVID-19 Lockdown.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2023
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Smoking cessation among people with mental illness: A South African perspective.South African family practice : official journal of the South African Academy of Family Practice/Primary Care · 2022
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Samantha FilbyResearch Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products, University of Cape Town School of Economics, Rondebosch, South Africa samantha.filby@uct.ac.za.ORCID 0000-0001-6371-6522
Kirsten van der ZeeResearch Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products, University of Cape Town School of Economics, Rondebosch, South Africa.
Corné van WalbeekResearch Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products, University of Cape Town School of Economics, Rondebosch, South Africa.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe endgame literature recommends that, for a tobacco sales ban to be successful, several demand-side preconditions (eg, low prevalence and effective cessation support) should be in place. The South African Government imposed a ban on the sale of all tobacco and vaping products between 27 March and 17 August 2020, as part of the COVID-19 lockdown.

objectivesTo assess how cigarette smokers responded to the sales ban, to evaluate how the ban impacted the cigarette market in South Africa and to use the South African experience to inform endgame planning.

methodsRegular preban cigarette smokers completed an online questionnaire from 4 to 19 June 2020 (n=23 631), in which they reported on their prelockdown cigarette smoking patterns, quitting behaviour (if relevant) and smoking behaviour during the ban.

resultsAbout 9% of prelockdown smokers in the sample successfully quit smoking. 93% of continuing smokers purchased cigarettes despite the sales ban. The average price of cigarettes increased by 250% relative to prelockdown prices. Most respondents purchased cigarettes through informal channels.

conclusionsThe demand-side preconditions for an effective sales ban were not in place in South Africa, making a sales ban inappropriate. The South African experience suggests that supply-side factors are also important in ensuring the success of a sales ban. These are: (1) the illicit market must be under control before implementing a sales ban; and (2) an effective sales ban needs to be synchronised with a ban on the manufacture, transport and distribution of cigarettes.

Indexed as

COVID-19Tobacco IndustryTobacco ProductsCommerceCommunicable Disease ControlHumansSouth Africaeconomicsend gameillegal tobacco productspublic policy

Identifiers

PMID33472979
PMCPMC9606502

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.