Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33472971›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021

Rational policymaking during a pandemic.

Loïc Berger, Nicolas Berger, Valentina Bosetti, Itzhak Gilboa, Lars Peter Hansen, Christopher Jarvis, Massimo Marinacci, Richard D Smith

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed.

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  11. Adaptive metrics for an evolving pandemic: A dynamic approach to area-level COVID-19 risk designations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
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  12. Article
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  14. Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Loïc BergerCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School of Management, University of Lille, Unité Mixte de Recherche 9221-Lille Economics Management, 59000 Lille, France; l.berger@ieseg.fr lhansen@uchicago.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0696-9387
Nicolas BergerFaculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4213-6040
Valentina BosettiResources for the Future-Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (RFF-CMCC) European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, 20123 Milan, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4970-0027
Itzhak GilboaEconomics and Decision Sciences Department, École des Hautes Études Commerciales de Paris, 78351 Jouy-en-Josas, France.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6062-7660
Lars Peter HansenDepartment of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637; l.berger@ieseg.fr lhansen@uchicago.edu.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0035-8558
Christopher JarvisDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0812-2446
Massimo MarinacciInnocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, Bocconi University, 20136 Milan, Italy.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0079-4176
Richard D SmithFaculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, United Kingdom.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3837-6559

Funding

European Research Council
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.

Indexed as

COVID-19Policy MakingHealth PolicyHumansModels, TheoreticalPandemicsQuarantineSchoolsUncertaintyambiguitymodel uncertaintyrobustness

Identifiers

PMID33472971
PMCPMC7848715

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.