Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33472661›Full record

ArticleParasites & vectors2021

Predicting the impact of outdoor vector control interventions on malaria transmission intensity from semi-field studies.

Adrian Denz, Margaret M Njoroge, Mgeni M Tambwe, Clara Champagne, Fredros Okumu, Joop J A van Loon, Alexandra Hiscox, Adam Saddler, Ulrike Fillinger, Sarah J Moore and 1 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Parasites & vectors, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
7.5field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.

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  6. Estimating mosquito bionomics parameters with a hierarchical Bayesian model.Current research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 7 institutions in 6 countries.

Adrian DenzDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051, Basel, Switzerland. adrian.denz@unibas.ch.
Margaret M NjorogeHuman Health Theme, International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), 00100, Nairobi, Kenya.
Mgeni M TambweEnvironmental Health and Ecological Sciences Department, Ifakara Health Institute, P.O. Box 53, Ifakara, Tanzania.
Clara ChampagneDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051, Basel, Switzerland.
Fredros OkumuEnvironmental Health and Ecological Sciences Department, Ifakara Health Institute, P.O. Box 53, Ifakara, Tanzania.
Joop J A van LoonLaboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University and Research, P.O. Box 16, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Alexandra HiscoxLaboratory of Entomology, Wageningen University and Research, P.O. Box 16, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Adam SaddlerDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051, Basel, Switzerland.
Ulrike FillingerHuman Health Theme, International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), 00100, Nairobi, Kenya.
Sarah J MooreDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051, Basel, Switzerland.
Nakul ChitnisDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, 4051, Basel, Switzerland.
Ifakara Health Institute · TZSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute · CHUniversity of Basel · CHWageningen University & Research · NLInternational Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology · KEUniversity of Glasgow · GBUniversity of London · GB

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1032350Innovative Vector Control Consortium 44Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 163473
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSemi-field experiments with human landing catch (HLC) measure as the outcome are an important step in the development of novel vector control interventions against outdoor transmission of malaria since they provide good estimates of personal protection. However, it is often infeasible to determine whether the reduction in HLC counts is due to mosquito mortality or repellency, especially considering that spatial repellents based on volatile pyrethroids might induce both. Due to the vastly different impact of repellency and mortality on transmission, the community-level impact of spatial repellents can not be estimated from such semi-field experiments.

methodsWe present a new stochastic model that is able to estimate for any product inhibiting outdoor biting, its repelling effect versus its killing and disarming (preventing host-seeking until the next night) effects, based only on time-stratified HLC data from controlled semi-field experiments. For parameter inference, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to account for nightly variation of semi-field experimental conditions. We estimate the impact of the products on the vectorial capacity of the given Anopheles species using an existing mathematical model. With this methodology, we analysed data from recent semi-field studies in Kenya and Tanzania on the impact of transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons, the odour-baited Suna trap and their combination (push-pull system) on HLC of Anopheles arabiensis in the peridomestic area.

resultsComplementing previous analyses of personal protection, we found that the transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons act mainly by killing or disarming mosquitoes. Depending on the actual ratio of disarming versus killing, the vectorial capacity of An. arabiensis is reduced by 41 to 96% at 70% coverage with the transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons and by 38 to 82% at the same coverage with the push-pull system, under the assumption of a similar impact on biting indoors compared to outdoors.

conclusionsThe results of this analysis of semi-field data suggest that transfluthrin-treated eave ribbons are a promising tool against malaria transmission by An. arabiensis in the peridomestic area, since they provide both personal and community protection. Our modelling framework can estimate the community-level impact of any tool intervening during the mosquito host-seeking state using data from only semi-field experiments with time-stratified HLC.

Indexed as

AnimalsAnophelesBayes TheoremCyclopropanesFemaleFluorobenzenesHumansInsect Bites and StingsInsect RepellentsMalariaModels, TheoreticalMosquito ControlMosquito VectorsOdorantsCyclopropanesFluorobenzenesInsect RepellentstransfluthrinAnopheles arabiensisCommunity-level impactHierarchical Bayesian modelMalariaOutdoor transmissionSemi-field experimentsSpatial repellentStochastic modellingVector controlVolatile pyrethroids

Identifiers

PMID33472661
PMCPMC7819244
OpenAlexW3123178230

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.