Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33466633›Full record

ArticleJournal of personalized medicine2021

Complex Machine-Learning Algorithms and Multivariable Logistic Regression on Par in the Prediction of Insufficient Clinical Response to Methotrexate in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Helen R Gosselt, Maxime M A Verhoeven, Maja Bulatović-Ćalasan, Paco M Welsing, Maurits C F J de Rotte, Johanna M W Hazes, Floris P J G Lafeber, Mark Hoogendoorn, Robert de Jonge

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of personalized medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
4.8field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 38 citations in OpenAlex.

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  9. Corticosteroid treatment prediction using chest X-ray and clinical data.Computational and structural biotechnology journal · 2024
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  10. Article
  11. Towards Personalized Medicine in Rheumatoid Arthritis.Open access rheumatology : research and reviews · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Helen R GosseltDepartment of Clinical Chemistry, Amsterdam Gastroenterology and Metabolism, Amsterdam UMC, VUmc, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-9262-7411
Maxime M A VerhoevenDepartment of Rheumatology & Clinical Immunology, UMC Utrecht, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-5602-3856
Maja Bulatović-ĆalasanDepartment of Rheumatology & Clinical Immunology, UMC Utrecht, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Paco M WelsingDepartment of Rheumatology & Clinical Immunology, UMC Utrecht, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Maurits C F J de RotteDepartment of Clinical Chemistry, Amsterdam Gastroenterology and Metabolism, Amsterdam UMC, Univ of Amsterdam, 1105 AZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Johanna M W HazesDepartment of Rheumatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, 3015 GD Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Floris P J G LafeberDepartment of Rheumatology & Clinical Immunology, UMC Utrecht, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Mark HoogendoornDepartment of Computer Science, Quantitative Data Analytics Group, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Robert de JongeDepartment of Clinical Chemistry, Amsterdam Gastroenterology and Metabolism, Amsterdam UMC, VUmc, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Utrecht University · NLAmsterdam University Medical Centers · NLErasmus MC · NLVrije Universiteit Amsterdam · NL

Funding

Roche NL Erythrocyte-folate measurements in U-Act-Early were supported by Roche NL BV
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The goals of this study were to examine whether machine-learning algorithms outperform multivariable logistic regression in the prediction of insufficient response to methotrexate (MTX); secondly, to examine which features are essential for correct prediction; and finally, to investigate whether the best performing model specifically identifies insufficient responders to MTX (combination) therapy. The prediction of insufficient response (3-month Disease Activity Score 28-Erythrocyte-sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) > 3.2) was assessed using logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The baseline features of 355 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients from the "treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis CoHort" (tREACH) and the U-Act-Early trial were combined for analyses. The model performances were compared using area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), and sensitivity and specificity. Finally, the best performing model following feature selection was tested on 101 RA patients starting tocilizumab (TCZ)-monotherapy. Logistic regression (AUC = 0.77 95% CI: 0.68-0.86) performed as well as LASSO (AUC = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67-0.85), random forest (AUC = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.61 = 0.81), and XGBoost (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61-0.81), yet logistic regression reached the highest sensitivity (81%). The most important features were baseline DAS28 (components). For all algorithms, models with six features performed similarly to those with 16. When applied to the TCZ-monotherapy group, logistic regression's sensitivity significantly dropped from 83% to 69% (

Indexed as

arthritishealthcaremethotrexateoutcome assessmentrheumatoidtherapeutics

Identifiers

PMID33466633
PMCPMC7828730
OpenAlexW3118793607

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.