ArticleNature ecology & evolution2021
Extinction risk controlled by interaction of long-term and short-term climate change.
Article in Nature ecology & evolution, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Staking out the frontiers: The limits of the metazoan shallow marine fossil record.Science advances · 2026Article
- Cenozoic losses of tree diversity constrain climatic adaptation of Western and Central European forests.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Environmental and Evolutionary Correlates of Extinction Risk in a Global Biodiversity Hotspot.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The effect of climate legacies on extinction dynamics: A systematic review.Cambridge prisms. Extinction · 2025Review
- Article
- Challenges and directions in analytical paleobiology.Paleobiology · 2023Article
- Improving the relevance of paleontology to climate change policy.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Article
- Deep-time climate legacies affect origination rates of marine genera.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
- Thermal niches of planktonic foraminifera are static throughout glacial-interglacial climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Assessing extinction risk from climate drivers is a major goal of conservation science. Few studies, however, include a long-term perspective of climate change. Without explicit integration, such long-term temperature trends and their interactions with short-term climate change may be so dominant that they blur or even reverse the apparent direct relationship between climate change and extinction. Here we evaluate how observed genus-level extinctions of arthropods, bivalves, cnidarians, echinoderms, foraminifera, gastropods, mammals and reptiles in the geological past can be predicted from the interaction of long-term temperature trends with short-term climate change. We compare synergistic palaeoclimate interaction (a short-term change on top of a long-term trend in the same direction) to antagonistic palaeoclimate interaction such as long-term cooling followed by short-term warming. Synergistic palaeoclimate interaction increases extinction risk by up to 40%. The memory of palaeoclimate interaction including the climate history experienced by ancestral lineages can be up to 60 Myr long. The effect size of palaeoclimate interaction is similar to other key factors such as geographic range, abundance or clade membership. Insights arising from this previously unknown driver of extinction risk might attenuate recent predictions of climate-change-induced biodiversity loss.
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Registered trials
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